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WJR April 2019 Reports

April 30, 2019

Someone once said that the stock market is like marriage – the secret to success is sufficiently low expectations.  Now, I didn’t say that, but someone did.

True or not for marriage, those are words that stock prices rely on this week.  Earnings estimates for the first quarter had been lowered so much, more than 80 percent of all S&P companies are meeting or beating them.  Perhaps more importantly, however, is that while earnings aren’t higher than last year, a much rumored “earnings recession” just isn’t happening.

This morning, Merck, McDonald’s, Mastercard, Pfizer, Ingersoll-Rand and ConocoPhillips are all out with better than expected earnings and revenue numbers.  General Electric shares are 10 percent higher after reporting 14 cents per share of adjusted earnings, which was a nickel better than the average estimate. Beating on earnings but missing on sales are Eaton, Eli Lilly and General Motors.  Apple reports later today.

Last night, Alphabet had positive earnings news, with advertising sales were up 16.7 percent. the problem is that an 18.6 percent increase was expected and Alphabet shares are off about 8 percent, dragging the NASDAQ lower.

The Fed starts a two-day meeting today and the trade negotiations resumed in China overnight.

At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are down a point, the Dow futures are up 84,with about half of that gain attributable to McDonald’s,butthe NASDAQ futures are about 49 points below fair value.

April 29, 2019

The bulk of first quarter earnings reports are behind us, but we’ll still get reports from about 150 of the S&P 500 this week. Last Friday’s Advance GDP figure of 3.2 percent supported yet another rally for stock prices.

A massive earnings story at the movies this past weekend has Disney shares indicated about 1½ percent higher pre-market.  Avengers Endgame reportedly brought in 1.2 billion dollars at the worldwide box office.  That further bolsters the Disney catalog of must-see entertainment as they prepare for their own streaming service.

Spotify reported a 79-cent loss for last quarter which was more than double the expected loss.  However, better than expected sales this morning and shares are higher by about 3½ percent.

AK Steel, Transocean McDermott and Alphabet all report later today.

Boeing holds their annual shareholders meeting today.  There should be some interesting questions for management at that one.

The sake is flowing in Japan as the Nikkei was closed overnight for the beginning of a 10-day Holiday.  I think that we could use one of those over here.  Anyway, our futures took a turn for the worse about 90 minutes ago and at this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are lower by about a point.The Dow futures are down 16, and the NASDAQ futures are about 4½ points below fair value.

April 26, 2019

The earnings reports continue to roll in this morning, but we will get one economic data point at 8:30 that could influence stock prices at the open.  The Government’s advance number on first quarter Gross Domestic Product is expected to come in at 2.5 percent.  We’ll get two revisions to that number before it’s final, but anything 2 ½ percent or above seems to be a long way from recession, in spite of all that inverted-yield-curve hand wringing from a few weeks ago.

Last night, Ford Motor gave us good earnings news.  Even though sales were below a year ago, adjusted earnings were a penny better than last year and at 44 cents, they were 15 cents better than expected.  Ford shares are about 7 percent higher pre-market but are still just barely above 10 bucks apiece.

Also last night, Intel reported better than expected results for last quarter, but sales guidance for the rest of the year was awful and shares are about 7 percent lower this morning. ExxonMobil just reported 55 cents in profit which was 14 cents short.  Exxon looking to open about 2½ percent lower.

The famous other hand belongs to Amazon.  $7.09 of adjusted profit crushed the $4.72 estimate and Amazon announced that it will make a significant investment to provide Prime members with free overnight shipping.

Overseas markets are mixed once again, but pending a GDP surprise in fifteen minutes, we’ll head lower at 9:30. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are down about 6points while the Dow futures are lower by 64 points, andthe NASDAQ futures are about 29 points below fair value.

April 25, 2019

This morning we’re getting yet another example of why it’s so silly to refer to the Dow Jones Industrial average as “the stock market.”

Overall, stocks are looking to open higher this morning, while the Dow Jones futures are about 135 points below fair value.  How can that be?

Keep in mind that the Dow is a price weighted index, and if one of its components with a higher dollar price per share catches a downdraft, the index gets sucked into the vacuum.  This morning, 3M reported earnings and sales that fell short of expectations, lowered their full year outlook and announced the termination of 2,000 jobs.  3M shares are about 18 dollars lower pre-market, and that alone is kicking about 130 points off the index.

About 60 of the S&P 500 report earnings today.  Out with good news so far are Bristol-Myers and Southwest Airlines, among others, and from last night, Facebook and Microsoft.  Facebook is indicated about 9 percent higher this morning, and Microsoft is about 4½ percent higher.  Comcast is out with mixed results and UPS, blaming it on bad weather, disappointed on profits and sales.

How about this statistic – over 15 percent of all sales at Chipotle are now digital sales, as the casual restaurant industry continues to embrace the online environment and those that don’t risk being left behind.

Overseas markets are generally a little lower. And at this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 2½ points while the Dow futures are lower by 128 points, thanks almost solely to 3M, butthe NASDAQ futures, helped by Microsoft and Facebook, are about 71points above fair value.

April 24, 2019

All of yesterday’s big earnings beats lit a fire under stock prices and we’ll start the day today at record highs for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.

The reports we’ve gotten this morning are a bit more tempered, but the general trend is again higher.  Shares of cloud software firm SAP are about 8 percent higher, shares of Nissan in Japan are about 4 percent lower on a downbeat outlook.

Boeing and AT&T both reported adjusted earnings in line with estimates.  Boeing, however, pulled their full year guidance and stopped its share repurchase program at least until the 737 Max situation is resolved.  In the meantime, their free cash flow is not flowing like it did last year.

Health insurer Anthem reported $6.61 versus the expected $5.81.  Biogen and Caterpillar are also out with positive reports. Facebook, Microsoft and Tesla all report in later today.

We could have a bidding war brewing for oil exploration firm Anadarko.  Chevron has a 65 dollar per share offer on the table.  This morning, Occidental went public with a 76 dollar per share offer.

Markets overseas are mixed. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about apoint, the Dow futures are up 27, and the NASDAQ futures are just about 9 points above fair value.

April 23, 2019

It’s a morning chock full of corporate earnings reports and I’m still looking for a significant one that didn’t come in better than expected.  Granted, earnings expectations weren’t all that great to begin with, but this is good news nonetheless.

Shares of Hasbro are more than 15 percent higher pre-market.  The toy seller earned 21 cents per share for the quarter gone by, versus an expected loss of 11 cents.

Elsewhere, the following companies beat estimates ALL on better than expected sales:  Procter & Gamble, United Technologies, Harley Davidson, Coca-Cola, Twitter, whose shares are 7 percent higher and Lockheed Martin.  Lockheed’s profit was $5.99 per share, which was a full $1.65 better than expected.

Verizon and Jet Blue also reported better than expected earnings on in-line revenues.  However, Verizon raised earnings guidance for the full year.

If there’s a bad-news story this morning, it’s shares of Hormel Foods, down about 4 percent on a broker downgrade.

This morning’s earnings reports have lifted the futures out of an early hole.  At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 5½ points, the Dow futures are up82, and the NASDAQ futures are just about13 points abovefair value.

April 22, 2019

We may be looking at rising prices at the gasoline pump in coming weeks.  According to a story in the Washington Post, there will be no further extensions on the waivers the U.S. granted to eight countries regarding purchases of Iranian crude.  In response, oil prices are about 2½ percent higher this morning.  We’ll have to wait and see what the Saudi Arabian response will be.

Your response to Kimberly-Clarks earnings report won’t require any Kleenex.  Kimberly-Clark just reported $1.66 in profit for last quarter, which was 12 cents better than expected, even though it was a nickel lower than a year ago.  Shares are about 4 percent higher pre-market.

We’ll get an indication of just how much the housing market may be weakening this morning at 10 o’clock with the release of the March Existing Home Sales number.  Expect and annualized run rate of 5.35 million units, which would be about a 3.8 percent decline.

There’s only one merger on the wire today, and at a half-billion-dollar valuation, it’s a relatively small one.  KeyW Holdings is being acquired by Jacobs Engineering at a 43 percent premium to Friday’s close.

A bunch of overseas markets are closed today for Easter Monday, but we will return from our three-day weekend with lower prices. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are lower by about 8 points, the Dow futures are down 76, and the NASDAQ futures are just about 29 points below fair value.

April 18, 2019

It’s the last trading day of the week here in the U.S. and there will be plenty of potentially market moving news – of which some of which is not corporate earnings news.  We’ll get the release of the redacted Mueller Report, which is expected to have a little something for people of every political persuasion, in that it is said to be over 400 pages long.  The weekend talk shows won’t be wanting for something to talk about on Easter Sunday.

American Express, Philip Morris, Travelers, Union Pacific and Honeywell are all talking about better than expected earnings news this morning, although Amex shares are about a percent or so lower after missing the estimated sales number.  Shares of Blackstone are surging more than 8 percent on word that they will changing their corporate structure from a partnership to a ‘C’ corporation.

Today will be the first day of trading for shares of Zoom and Pinterest.  Both are coming public at a higher than expected offering price.  Zoom will come to market at 36 dollars per share, with Pinterest going at 19 dollars per share, although the two companies will have roughly the same market capitalization.

Mustang Biotechnology is 175% higher this morning on word of a licensing agreement with St. Jude’s Children’s Hospital to commercialize Mustang’s stem cell treatment for “Bubble boy” disease.

Our futures have improved over the past hour, but are still in the red. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are lower by about a point, the Dow futures are flat, and the NASDAQ futures are just about 6 points belowfair value.

April 17, 2019

It’s another morning packed with moderately good financial news.  Overnight, Chinese first quarter Gross Domestic Product was announced as growing at a 6.4 percent clip.  That’s a tenth of a percent better than expected.

Yesterday, Apple and Qualcomm agreed to give each other’s lawyers some time off, ending their long-standing legal wrangling.  Qualcomm shares rose 20 percent yesterday on the news and are another 9 percent higher pre-market today.

A couple more companies beat lowered profit expectations.  Morgan Stanley reported $1.33 per share in adjusted profit, 16 cents better than expected and shares are about 2 percent higher. Domino’s Pizza shares are also about 2 percent higher on a broker upgrade and if you’d like something to drink with that pizza, Pepsico shares are about 2 percent higher pre-market after reporting 97 cents per share in adjusted profit.  That was a nickel better than expected.

Even shares of Netflix are about one percent higher this morning.  Last night Netflix beat the earnings estimate but issues some rather reserved guidance for the current quarter.  The flip side belongs to IBM this morning, down about 3 percent after a lousy report last night.

Shares of Pinterest should price today and are expected to price above original estimate of 16 dollars.

Overseas markets are mostly higher. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by almost 8 points, the Dow futures are up 34, and the NASDAQ futures are just about 34 points above fair value.

April 16, 2019

Well, it’s April 16th.  Your income taxes are paid.  If you have anything left, let’s talk about where you might want to put it.

Lots of folks, especially those who like to scare people, have been wringing their hands about the state of first quarter corporate earnings, with some predicting an earnings recession.  If this morning’s results are any indication, that earnings recession may be a long-ways off.

United Health led the parade this morning, reporting $3.73 per share of adjusted profit, 13 cents better than expected on better than expected revenue.  Investment firm Blackrock reported $6.61, 48 cents better than estimates.  Johnson and Johnson’s $2.10 was a seven cent beat and Bank of America beat the 66 cent estimate by four cents, even though trading revenue continues to suffer.

The famous other hand belongs to trucker J.B. Hunt.  Those shares are 5 percent lower on a disappointing report.  Bad weather in the Chicago area is getting the blame there.

Netflix will issue their earnings report after 4 o’clock today.

Chinese stocks rose more than 2 percent overnight and most other markets overseas are higher. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 11 points, the Dow futures are up 164, and the NASDAQ futures are just about 33 points above fair value.

April 15, 2019

Happy Tax Day, everyone.  For most, it means a lower tax bill than last year.  For some -- not so much.

It’s been a while since we’ve had a true “Merger Monday.”  However, there are a couple of domestic deals getting done this morning.  Waste Management shares are more than one percent higher.  They’ll acquire Advanced Disposal Services in a nearly 3 billion-dollar deal.  Advanced Disposal shares are more than 20 percent higher.  In the drug space, Catalent is buying Paragon Bioscience for 1.2 billion dollars.

Goldman Sachs reported a revenue miss this morning, but shares are fractionally higher as adjusted profit for the quarter beat the $4.89 estimate by 85 cents per share.  Citigroup just announced $1.87 per share in adjusted profit, which was a 7-cent beat.  However, a three percent reduction in expenses played a big part in that.  Revenue was slightly lower than expected.

Chinese stocks started the overnight session strongly on Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s comments regarding trade talks, but those gains faded by the end of the Chinese trading day.  Most other markets overseas are higher at this hour.

Our futures have lost most of their earlier gains.  Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher byabout a point, the Dow futures are up 13, butthe NASDAQ futures are just about 3 points belowfair value

April 12, 2019

There’s big news in the oil business this morning as Chevron is buying oil exploration company Anadarko.  It’s a 33-billion-dollar cash and stock deal, valuing Anadarko at 65 bucks per share.  Chevron shares are about 5 percent lower on the news, Anadarko shares are almost 30 percent higher, and most Anadarko competitors are 3 to 8 percent higher pre-market, as well.

Big bank stocks will be on the move today as quarterly earnings are announced.  This morning, JP Morgan Chase reported $2.65 of profit, which was 30 cents better than expected.  Shares are almost 3 percent higher. Shares of Wells Fargo. Wells reported $1.20 in earnings, 11 cents better than expected.  Shares are almost 2 pecent higher.  First Republic Bank is also out with positive earnings news.

Disney shares are about 3 percent higher after announcing their new Disney Plus streaming service last night, which $6.99 per month may prove some significant competition for Netflix, and if not, at least competition for smaller pay-per-month streamers.

Asia was higher after very positive Chinese export news overnight.  Europe his higher and we’ll likely be off to the races at 9:30 as well.

Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by 17points.Even though the drop in Chevron is costing the Dow about 35 points, the Dow futures are still up 208, and the NASDAQ futures are about 39 points above fair value.

April 11, 2019

The big bank CEOs can get back to work today, rather than spending a day trying be the grown-ups in the room on Capitol Hill.  It’s helpful that THEY don’t have to grandstand for votes.

You may have only of those Bed Bath & Beyond 20 percent off coupons on the counter. Well share of the retailer can be had at about 10 percent off this morning.  Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond had risen by more than 70 percent this year, owing mainly to speculation that some activist investors would push for some changes.  Well, perhaps some changes are in order.  Although last quarter’s adjusted profit of $1.20 was 10 cents better than expected, same store sales slipped 1.4 percent and the current quarter profit is expected to be about 7 to 12 cents.  The expected profit number was 30 cents, and even a 6 percent hike in Bed Bath & Beyond’s dividend isn’t helping the stock.

Costco reported March same store sales up almost 6 percent and Uber is expected to file for their initial public offering today.

We may get the details on Disney’s highly anticipated streaming service today.  Rite Aid and Fastenal are also slated to report earnings before the opening bell.

Our futures are pointing higher by about as much as they were 24 hours ago, and although the Dow rose only very modestly yesterday, the broader market actually had a pretty good day.  The NASDAQ is now actually at a 6-month high. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 4½ points, the Dow futures are up 23, and the NASDAQ futures are about 11 points above fair value.

April 10, 2019

Well, here we go.  Corporate earnings reporting season for the quarter gone by is unofficially underway.  Delta Airlines reported a profit of 96 cents per share, which was 6 cents better than expected on revenue that was better than expected.  Delta’s operating margin was nearly 10 percent and Delta shares are taking off by about 2½ percent pre-market.

Not to be outdone, shares of Levi Strauss are almost 7½ percent higher after last night’s report.  In their first report since shares were available to the hoi polio last month, Levi Strauss reported $146 million in income, compared with a 19-million-dollar loss a year ago.  Most of the improvement, according to the company, was due to the new tax law.  Nevertheless, traders seem impressed with the news.

Bed Bath and Beyond is on the earnings runway for later today and tomorrow we should get the details on Disney’s widely anticipated streaming service.

Even though no one pays much attention to inflation data anymore, the March Consumer Price Index comes our way at 8:30 this morning.  Expect an increase of only three-tenths of a percent.

Asian markets followed us lower overnight, but Europe is higher as the ECB has decided to leave interest rates unchanged at least through the remainder of the year. Our futures are off their earlier highs. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 7 points or so, the Dow futures areup 40, and the NASDAQ futures are almost 16 points abovefair value.

April 8, 2019

The futures are indicating a significant dip in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average this morning.  Fortunately, especially if you don’t own their shares, you can once again point to one name – and that name would be Boeing.

Word that American Airlines will extend the grounding of Boeing 737 Max planes until at least June 5th has Boeing shares down about 15 dollars pre-market.  That alone effectively drops the Dow Average by a little over 100 points.  Boeing announced a production slowdown in their very profitable 737 Model and their shares received a broker downgrade this morning.

Other than that big news on Boeing, it should be a relatively quiet news day.  We’ll get the February Factory Orders Report at 10 o’clock, which is expected to decline a bit from the January number.

The highly anticipated first quarter corporate earnings reporting season unofficially starts Friday with the report from Delta Airlines.  We’ll grease the tracks a little with a report today from WD-40.  Expect $1.11 per share in profit there, which would be 6 cents higher than a year ago.

Overseas markets are a mixed bag, but mostly lower.  Our futures are a bit lower, but if you ignore the impact of Boeing, they’re not that much lower.   At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are lower by about 3 points or so, the Dow futures are down 107, and the NASDAQ futures are 6½ points belowfair value.

April 5, 2019

Yesterday, some comments from China’s Vice-Premier that his country and the U.S. had reached a “new consensus” boosted stock prices, as President Trump commented that we could see a new agreement with the Chinese within four weeks or so.  That positive trend continues in the futures this morning.

That trend could accelerate or evaporate in less than 20 minutes.  At 8:30, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue its March Employment Report.  After a very weak February print, expect that 175,000 or more non-farm jobs came into being in March, with the Unemployment Rate holding steady at 3.8 percent.

Bed, Bath & Beyond shares are a couple percent higher pre-market on a broker upgrade.  Also getting upgrades this morning are shares of Chipotle and Urban Outfitters and Viacom.  Viacom is almost 2 percent higher, Urban Outfitters shares are about one percent higher, while Chipotle is little moved so far.

Shares of Boston Beer (that’s the Sam Adams brewer) are lower by about 3 percent on a broker downgrade.

Overseas markets are mixed, but generally a little higher.  At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 2 points or so, the Dow futures are up 22, and the NASDAQ futures are 7 points above fair value.

April 4, 2019

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are on a 5-day winning streak as we start the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen during 4 of the last 5 sessions.

It’s a big day for Tesla shareholders. We’ll start off with the bad news – which could get worse as the day goes on.  Tesla reported 63,000 car deliveries in March, that was 13,000 short of expectations.  Of that number, less than 51,000 were Model 3s.  The expected volume there was 54,600. Tesla shares are about 10 percent lower in pre-market trade.  Of course, the news could get even worse pending a judge’s decision today on an SEC complaint about Elon Musk’s runaway tweeting.

Constellation Brands just checked in with adjusted earnings of $1.84, 12 cents better than expected.  Constellation shares are more than 3 percent higher.

The Weekly Jobless Claims number comes at 8:30, but the big economic number of the week is the Monthly Employment Report which comes out tomorrow. President Trump is meeting with China’s Vice Premier today.  Any announcement after that meeting will likely move the algorithms that move the markets.

The Shanghai Index was one percent higher.  Tokyo was basically unchanged overnight.  European markets are mixed. Our futures have retreated from the higher levels of an hour or two ago. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by a point or so, the Dow futures are up 11, but the NASDAQ futures are 2 points below fair value.

April 3, 2019

An interesting and highly concerning proposal is being floated by the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee this morning.  Oregon’s Senator Ron Wyden is proposing that capital gains not only be taxed at ordinary income tax rates, but that they’d be taxed every year based on current value whether or not they’ve been sold (and whether or not you’d have cash to pay the tax.)  Forget about the fact that such a proposal has no chance of getting passed by the current Senate. Just remember – those people are out there and they’re coming for your money.

If you own shares in Dave and Buster’s, you’re making some capital gains this morning.  Shares are about 7 percent higher after Dave & Busters reported yesterday after the bell.  Adjusted earnings of 66 cents per share, three cents better than expected, and they raised the current year forecast.

Blue Apron shares are 15 percent higher on word that their CEO is taking off his apron.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that Blue Apron shares still go for about $1.12 apiece, down about 90 percent since their 2017 IPO.

Gamestop is 9 percent lower on soft guidance.  Not surprisingly, mortgage applications were up over 18 percent last week as interest rates took a tumble and people scrambled to get further in debt.

Overseas markets are higher on the order of about one percent. Our futures are up and have been climbing. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 13 points, the Dow futures are up 104 and the NASDAQ futures are almost 45 points above fair value.

April 2, 2019

We should get off to a fairly calm start after yesterday’s rip high in stock prices.  One stock that will definitely NOT be in rally mode is Walgreens Boots Alliance.  They reported $1.64 of quarterly profit this morning.  That was 8 cents short of estimates.  Walgreens Boots also said that full year profits would be flat, which is about 9 or 10 percent lower than previous guidance.  Shares are about 8 percent lower pre-market.

Shares of Lyft are lower by another 5 percent this morning after falling 12 percent yesterday.  Perhaps it’s not a god idea to buy IPO shares on April Fool’s Day, especially is a company that’s not looking to turn a profit any time soon.

In the curious story of the day, Bitcoin spiked about 19 percent higher right after midnight and is still about 16 percent higher than yesterday.  There is a report of an April Fool’s story which reported that the SEC had approved a bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund which attracted a major investor.  If that report is true and the reported story was indeed an April Fool’s joke, some people are going to get punched by the punch line.

We’ll get the February Durable Goods number at 8:30.

Tokyo was flat overnight, but other major markets overseas are in the green.

At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 2 points, the Dow futures are down 3½ andthe NASDAQ futures are almost 8 points above fair value.

April 1, 2019

Happy April Fools Day.  When we look back at the first quarter of 2019, well, in the words of Herman’s Hermits, it would be nice to have a second verse – same as the first.  Major stock indexes are 11 to 14 percent higher year-to-date, and it looks like the rally will continue in the early going today.

The uplift in the futures comes after a strong session in Chinese markets overnight.  A Purchasing Managers Survey in China reflected an unexpected increase in manufacturing activity, to a reading above 50, which indicates expansion in Chinese Manufacturing.  In response, the Shanghai Index rose 2 ½ percent overnight and the Shenzhen Index was higher by 3½ percent.

Stateside, Cal-Maine Foods issued a pleasant surprise this morning, with 82 cents per share of profit, which was 32 cents better than expected, even though egg prices fell 11 percent in the quarter.  Cal-Maine shares are about one percent higher pre-market.

And Kellogg is said to be in talks to part with some of its brands, including Keebler and Famous Amos, in return for say, a billion or a billion and a half cookies, (I mean dollars.)

Europe is one-half to one percent higher.  At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by almost 21 points, the Dow futures are up 200, but the NASDAQ futures are about 72 points above fair value.

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