July 30, 2001We'll clean up most of the rest of corporate earnings reports this week. By the end of the week, 90% of the S&P 500 will have reported. So far, lowered expectations have largely been met, but guidance for future profits has been less than exciting.
If fast laptop computers get you excited, today may be your day. Intel will reportedly roll out a 1.3 gigahertz Pentium 3 chip for laptop computers, just in time for that Microsoft XP rollout in the fall.
Speaking of Microsoft, they're a little upset that AOL Time Warner is looking to acquire AT&T Broadband. Microsoft is looking to block the deal, saying that it would give AOL a dominant position in the cable business, and Microsoft knows a couple things about dominant positions in important lines of business.
Disney reports earnings today. No big economic reports are due. Japan closed overnight at a 16 year low.
Futures are fairly quiet, but slightly positive. Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures are up 1, Dow futures up 16 and the Nasdaq futures 9 points above fair value.
July 20, 2001This concept of odd/even, , watering of the lawn seems to have spread to the stock market. With your lawn, it's one day green, one day brown. With the market this week, it's been one day green, one day red. Yesterday was a green day, but today, it looks like the water's been turned off.
A bunch of big problems today: Microsoft reported last night. Microsoft has historically been very cautious about their guidance -- they have consistently put a damper on their predictions of future earnings. Well, after getting everybody excited last week about better than expected sales in the past quarter, they say that the next quarter's earnings will be less than analysts expect.
One of the bright spots for all of us during the past few months has been the dramatic decline in oil prices. Don't look now, but OPEC says they are poised to take action to boost oil prices, and that's about the last thing we need right now.
DaimlerChrysler returned a worldwide profit. The Chrysler unit still lost money, but far, far less than they lost in the previous quarter.
We're likely to sell-off at the open. Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures are down 7,, Dow futures off 65 and the Nasdaq futures 34 points below fair value.
July 19, 2001Earnings reports rolled in yesterday, pretty much as expected. But companies that think business will get better soon are few and far between. It's that lack of earnings visability that kept stock prices in the dumper.
We tried to rally a few times yesterday during Alan Greenspan's testimony before the members of the House of Representatives. Mr. Greenspan was pretty straightforward in his comments. He said that the Fed was just about done cutting rates, but will cut again if necessary, and he was again remarkably patient with a number of questions from some House members who well let's say, must have majored in histrionics as opposed to economics.
Last night, IBM hit its quarterly earnings, but was very cautious about the rest of the year. Nokia reported this morning at the high end of expectation, said that they don't have much of a clue what the rest of the year holds, but they think that 2002 will bring growth of 20 to 25% because of the rollout of more advanced 3G phone systems.
Lots of earnings reports on the way today, including Microsoft and Sun, Microsystems. Adjusted for fair value, the futures are weak again, although the Nasdaq looks to be in much better shape than the Dow or the S&P so far.
July 18, 2001The beautiful thing about summer are those laid-back days when not much seems to happen and you can just take it easy. Today is not one of those days. Hundreds of companies report earnings today, including IBM, which reports after the market closes. The Consumer Price Index and Housing Start numbers for June will be released in 15 minutes and Alan Greenspan will testify before the House of Representatives at 10 o'clock this morning. Outside of that, not much going on.
Ford Motor reported a loss for the quarter of 30 cents per share exclusive of charges, 41 cents including charges. What charges, you say? A 2.1 billion dollars for tire replacement and potential liability costs from the Firestone problem. Those results are about 4 cents a share better than expected.
Johnson Controls beat estimates by a penny, Delphi hit its number on the nose.
Last night, Intel and Apple computer both beat earnings estimates. Intel said , that they see improvement in the next six months, mainly due to the full rollout of the Pentium 4 chip and hopes that Microsoft's Windows XP will prompt a lot of new computer sales. But profit margins are likely to continue shrinking.
Futures are weak again, but there may be a lot of changes in direction as today unfolds. Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures down 11, Dow futures off 58 and Nasdaq futures 23 points below fair value.
July 17, 2001Earnings all over the place this morning. Unisys met estimates but warned about the rest of the year. Fannie Mae and Kodak met estimates, Pfizer and Knight Ridder beat estimates by a penny. Merrill Lynch beat lowered expectations by 2 cents. International Paper beat estimates by 7 cents. The only big misses of the morning were Wells Fargo, with a loss of 5 cents and Phillips Electronics over in the Netherlands, posting a big loss.
Locally, of course, the big earnings story of the day is General Motors. GM stock has been on a run, up over 30% since the end of March. GM reported profits of $1.26. That's down from $2.93 last year. However, it beats consensus estimates of $1.14 profit per share.
In about an hour, Indu, strial Production and Capacity Utilization figures will be out. The recession in manufacturing is no big secret to people around here, and that Capacity Utilization number could be the worst we've seen since 1983.
Futures are weak again, but they're not all that bad. Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures are down 1 1/2, Dow futures down 6, Nasdaq futures are about 6 points below fair value.
July 16, 2001This week, it's all about expectations. Companies have set expectations so low (through all the earnings warnings) that most of this week's news should be good news. Earnings will start rolling in like the tide starting today. Sixteen of the Dow 30 Industrials report this week, and don't expect a lot of companies to disappoint.
So far this morning, Citigroup, Eaton, Bank of America and Continental Airlines all beat estimates. Continental was the big surprise, beating estimates by 16 cents. That's the good news. The bad news is that they made 74 cents on the quarter, down from $2.46 last year.
In fifteen minutes, we get the May report on business inventories. Expect that inventories declined by one-tenth of one percent. A bigger decline would be good news for stocks.
Futures are sligh,, tly under water this morning. Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures are flat, Dow futures down 4, Nasdaq futures are about 13 points below fair value.
July 13, 2001It's Friday the 13th. Do you feel lucky? Last Friday the 13th, back in October, we saw triple digit gains in the Dow and the Nasdaq. Yesterday we saw triple digit gains in the Dow and the Nasdaq. Today? We'll have to wait and see.
The market rally yesterday was pretty impressive. Almost two stocks rose on the New York Exchange for every one that fell. The Dow rose over 3%, the Nasdaq over 5 ¼ %, and most of it was on the back of the Microsoft news we talked about yesterday. General Electric met estimates yesterday, and that helped. But, this was a pretty strong rally on pretty unimpressive news. Imagine what might happen if two or three big companies actually said they thought things were improving.
Kimberly Clark with their second warning in two months this morning and I, nternatio, nal Paper cutting more jobs - both blaming the strong dollar. AMD, Rambus and Juniper Networks all meeting or barely beating severely lowered expectations overnight. Asia was down overnight, Europe is mixed and all US stock index futures are within a couple points of fair value. No clear indication for the market open, but we get the June Producer Price Index in 15 minutes. A negative number there would help.
July 12, 2001It's going to be party time at 9:30 this morning, and it's been awhile since we've had reason to party. Last night Microsoft said they expect to make their earnings number a week from today, and that revenues will beat estimates by a hundred million dollars or so. Granted, a hundred million on top of 6 ½ billion is not earth shattering, and just MEETING estimates isn't any great shakes. BUT - given the seemingly endless stream of earnings warnings we've had during the past month - this is a big time breath of fresh air and the market's going up at the open.
Actual , earnings reports are starting to flow, and you have to assume that most companies that are have bad news have already warned. Motorola beat estimates, although they missed their revenue number. Enron beat estimates, as did Harley Davidson, Dow Jones, First Union and Yahoo!
Adjusted for fair value, the futures are on a roll. S&P futures are up 12, Dow futures are up 83 and the Nasdaq futures are 69 points above fair value.
July 11, 2001The early rally in the market faded quickly yesterday, and stocks took a pretty good drubbing. Corning did not hold its early gains and lost almost a buck on the day. The Nasdaq fell over 3% as earnings warnings continued to pile up.
So what up for today? Warning that revenue this quarter will be light by about half a billion dollars, Compaq is shedding another 4000 employees, Emerson sees third quarter earnings off 11%, Comverse Technology warning for this quarter, next quarter and the next quarter, and Doubleclick saying that things may not pick up in the internet advertising business until the middle of next year. Allstate, Newell Rubbermaid, Safeco and Chubb all also warning.
Is there any good news out there?, Oh sure. Pepsi Bottling Group beat estimates by 2 cents. That's about it. Earnings reports coming from Yahoo and Motorola later today.
Europe down about 1% across the board. Adjusted for fair value, the future are a little weak - S&P futures are down 4, Dow futures down 33 and the Nasdaq futures are 2 1/2 points below fair value.
July 10, 2001It could be that the company known as "Corning" may officially change their name to "Warning". They are cutting another 1,000 jobs, closing three plants, eliminating their dividend for the first time since 1945 and warning about earnings for the rest of the year. Corning said after the bell last night that things may not get any better for the next 12 to 18 months. That's about the eight zillionth warning from Corning this year. So how's Corning trading is the pre-market trading? It's up 15 cents.
So keep an eye on Corning today. If stocks in a sector that has been beaten up already do not go down further on bad news, we may be seeing a floor for that sector's prices.
One big merger today, it's in the energy sector; Amerada Hess is buying Triton Energy for 2.7 billion, dollars.
Asia and Europe were pretty flat overnight. The futures here have been moving up for the past couple of hours. Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures are up 3, Dow futures up 10 and the Nasdaq futures are 21 points above fair value.
July 9, 2000At last. We finally get to focus on something other than earnings warnings. Comcast has made a hostile offer to buy AT&T Broadband for stock and debt totaling about 58 billion dollars. This story will be a long one. First of all, AT&T shareholders have to agree to it. Then, the regulators will get involved. This deal would make Comcast the number 1 cable company in the country, so you know the FTC and FCC guys will want to get involved. AT&T stock is trading even in the pre-market at 22, but today is the day AT&T is spinning off AT&T Wireless to its shareholders. If you adjust for the spin-off, AT&T should trade at about 16 bucks. So, 22 is a significant premium to that.
Don't forget how to get to the grocery store. It looks like Internet grocer Webvan is heading toward the final checkout lane. They fired 15% of their remaining employees Friday.
Asia and Europe all off overnight, but the US , futures are positive after looking pretty weak all morning.
Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures are flat, Dow futures are up 15, but the Nasdaq futures up 11 1/2 points.
July 6, 200, 1Beware of the TLA's. The three letter acronyms. Last night, earnings warnings from a bunch of three-letter-acronym stocks; AMD, BMC and EMC are going to knock stocks for a loop this morning. What's surprising is not necessarily that these companies are going to miss analyst estimates. The surprising part is the MAGNITUDE of the misses. AMD estimates profits at 3 to 5 cents. Analysts expected 27 cents. EMC expecting a nickel per share; estimates averaged 17 cents. BMC only expecting half the profit per share that was estimated.
It's becoming pretty clear that the SEC's regulation FD, which was int, ended to stop leaks of inside information is serving to leave everybody almost totally in the dark until warnings are issued like they were last night. So, nobody's getting the advance scoop, but this kind of lack of information is sure making stock investing a more volatile business.
In fifteen minutes the June Unemployment Report is released. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.6%, that would be the highest rate since May of 1998.<, br>
U.S. futures way off this morning. Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures are down 9, Dow futures are down 44, Nasdaq futures off by 29 points.
July 5, 2001A big earnings warning from British telecom company Marconi this morning. They'll miss their earnings number by half. A glass half empty, half full story from Compuware. Their quarterly earnings will beat estimates, but revenues will fall short of expectations.
On Tuesday, European regulators officially blocked the General Electric / Honeywell merger. As we discussed a couple weeks ago, this is not good news for stock prices, but the real dan, ger lies in any trade barriers that our friends in Congress may cook up in response. This morning there are reports that some Senators want to hold hearings on the matter. Keep an eye on that one.
And, if you own one of Apple's Power Mac G4 Cube computers, you may have a collector's item. Apple has suspended the high-end PC due to chronically anemic sales.
U.S. futures are weak this morning, but not as weak as they were in the 5 o'clock hour. Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures are down 6, Dow futures are down 38, Nasdaq futures off by 15 points.
July 3, 2001We started with a mixed market yesterday, and it pretty much stayed that way all day. The Dow finished up, the Nasdaq down.
After the close last night, over two dozen earnings warnings, as companies that were counting on closing a lot of business before the end of last month fessed up - it just didn't happen. A lot of software companies rely on those end of quarter contracts. And software makers led the parade of warnings. Internet Security Systems, Rational Soft, ware, E.phiphany all warned last night. Dupont also said that they'll miss their number by a bunch.
The Purchasing Managers Index was weak yesterday, but was better than expected. Nothing major on tap today - factory orders for May come out at 10 o'clock and the OPEC meeting starts in about 45 minutes. No change in oil output is expected.
Get out the barbecue, the stock market closes at 1 o'clock today. The futures are a little weak at this point. Adjusted for fair value, S&P futures are down 1, Dow futures are down about 21 and Nasdaq futures are down about 14 points.
July 2, 2001Nasdaq trading was just a mess on Friday, as the electronic exchange nearly shut down in mid-afternoon. It was the end of the quarter, it was Russell Index rebalancing day, it was about the worst time possible for a glitch. Reportedly the problem was caused by a technician running a diagnostic test. In any event, they promise that they won't miss a beat this morning. Maybe they installed a defibulator over the weekend.
It was actually a pretty good quarter for stocks. The Dow finished up 6.3%., That's the Dow's best quarter since 1999. The S&P rose 5 ½% and the Nasdaq went up over 17%. The Nasdaq 100 was up over 20%. Most of those gains, of course, came in April.
One minor warning, from Parker Hannifin, over the weekend. But we may have the big bad news behind us as ACTUAL quarterly earnings reports start rolling in later this week.
The futures pretty flat this morning. Adjusted for fair value, S&P are even, Dow futures are down about 6 and Nasdaq futures are up about 8 points.
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