July 29, 2011
There was an interesting story posted this morning. According to government reports, as of Wednesday, the United States Government currently had about 74 billion dollars on hand to pay its bills. Apple Corporation has 76 billion of cash on hand. Granted, the two are not directly comparable. One is very well governed. But perhaps if we could get Steve Jobs as President of the country, and the Apple Board as the Congress, maybe we could legislate everyone an iphone or an ipad, rather than an just another IOU.
Whatever, as we wait for Congress to hopefully avoid generating another stock market train-wreck, like the one they generated in the fall of 2008, we do have a few other things to watch.
In fifteen minutes, we’ll get the government’s first guess at 2ndquarter Gross Domestic Product. Expect an anemic gain of 1.6 percent. That compares with the 1stquarter final of 1.9 percent. Then, just before 10 o’clock, the Chicago PMI is expected to dip one point to 60 and the University of Michigan’s final reading on July Consumer Sentiment is expected to be up just a fraction at 64.
Merck, Newell Rubbermaid and Aon beat earnings estimates for last quarter. Newmont Mining, Arch Coal and Weyerhauser all missed their number.
For some reason, the Irish stock market is a little higher this morning, but everybody else is lower, but generally by one percent or less. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are lower by 6 points, the Dow futures are down 57, and the NASDAQ futures are about 8 points below fair value.
Let’s pretend for a minute or so that we can ignore the politicians’ fervent effort to destroy the stock market and the worldwide economy. Maybe it’s just a bad dream.
In any event, we’ve been through the bulk of second quarter earnings reports now with more than 80 percent of the big boys meeting or exceeding expectations, and that’s pretty good. Yesterday, more than 20 big companies raised their future guidance, including Whole Foods, Green Mountain, VISA, General Dynamics and Aetna. Of, course there were about 20 who lowered guidance as well, including Teradyne, Royal Caribbean, TriQuint Semiconductor and PF Chang’s.
The big data day of the week is tomorrow, but today at 8:30 the weekly jobless claims are expected to rise to 425,000 from 418,000. Then at 10 o’clock, June Pending Home Sales are expected to dip by 2 percent, after an 8 percent rise in May.
This morning, DuPont and McGraw Hill beat estimates. ExxonMobil and Sprint missed. Sprint stock is indicated 10% lower pre-market. Nintendo lowered their guidance.
Overseas markets are lower after our free-fall yesterday, but only by one to two percent.
Our futures are in wait-and-see mode, as hard as it is to watch. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are lower by 3½ points, the Dow futures are down 21, and the NASDAQ futures are about 6 points below fair value.
Usually, the wind blows the clouds from west to east. But again this morning, there’s a dark cloud hanging over the entire country that’s emanated from all the hot air in Washington D.C. With less than a week to go before D-Day (that’s default day) on August 2nd, compromise still appears to be the longest four-letter word in history.
Yet, most of the country west of the capital still appears to be functioning, at least judging by this morning’s earnings reports. Boeing earned $1.25 versus a 97 cent estimate. General Dynamics beat its number by 3 cents per share and Dow Chemical, whose shares are looking to open about a dollar higher, beat by 4 cents. AutoNation and Aetna are also out with positive surprises. The big utility Southern Company matched the earnings number but was short on revenue. And there was a little burp out of Tupperware, earning $1.03. That was 14 cents lower than expected.
At 8:30 this morning, look for a one percent rise in the June Durable Goods number, which would be about half of the May increase. Earlier this morning, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 5% drop in mortgage applications. Of course, why apply for a mortgage on a house that won’t appraise anyway.
Overseas markets are mixed, but our futures have been sliding noticeably during the past hour. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are down about 6 points, the Dow futures are down 28, and the NASDAQ futures are about 10 points below fair value.
President Obama and Speaker Boehner each delivered stirring statements to the nation last night. Although their makeup people did a pretty good job, they really should have lathered it on a bit more to rise to the level of kabuki that the politicians appear to desire.
Worldwide stocks markets, with a ring-side seat to the ongoing drama appeared shaken, relieved and then just plain bored through the trading day yesterday. This morning, the futures are suggesting that traders figure that one way or another, the crisis will be averted, and it’s time to focus on other stuff.
That “other stuff” at this point of the quarter means earnings reports. As Mr. Mulally discussed last hour, Ford Motor reported their eighth straight profitable quarter, beating expectations. The shares are indicated off their highs of the morning, but are still almost 2 percent higher premarket. 3M reported in line profits, Hershey and UPS beat estimates by a penny. On the other hand, UBS, the big Swiss Bank reported 1.2 billion euros in profit, well below the estimate of 1.32 billion euros.
10 o’clock brings the New Home Sales Report and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence number. Expect a drop to 56 from 58.5, but maybe more of a drop given all the shenanigans in Washington D.C.
Asian markets were higher overnight. Europe is mixed. If we were to open right now, we’d open higher, but not by much. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about almost 2½ points, the Dow futures are up 16, and the NASDAQ futures are about 6 points above fair value.
As we went into the weekend, if you paid any attention to members of Congress, the media, or your local barber – it was certain that if Washington didn’t have a debt deal by 4 o’clock yesterday, stock markets worldwide would totally fall apart. Well, 4 o’clock, 5 o’clock, 10 o’clock and this morning came and went with no sign of compromise in Washington and while worldwide stock prices are lower, they’re not lower than we might expect on any other given day.
So while the Democrats and Republicans continue to build their 2012 campaign platforms on the back of the American taxpayer, we’ll just have to wait, and perhaps turn our attention to other things, like corporations that are going about the business of making money rather than politicians who are making a mess.
This morning, oil-services firm Baker Hughes reported 93 cents in quarterly operating earnings. That was 2 cents better than expected. Lorillard beat by three cents, with $2.05 per share and Cleveland-based Eaton not only beat their quarterly bogey by 2 cents, they raised full-year guidance to $4 dollars per share. On average, analysts were looking for $3.92.
A little later we’ll hear from Texas Instruments and Anadarko.
Mainland China was 3 percent lower overnight, but most other markets overseas are down by less than one percent. Germany, in fact, has turned positive. Gold is about one percent higher again this morning, while oil is one percent lower, as are our stock futures.
At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are down about 9 points, the Dow futures are down 91, and the NASDAQ futures are about 13 points below fair value.
July 22, 2011
The “Courtney Rally” continued yesterday as the euro-zone countries firmed up a $157 billion dollar Greek bailout plan that (realistically) includes a partial default on Greek debt, as well as hope that some sort of grand compromise was near in Washington D.C.
This morning, the Grecian formula is helping European markets higher, but reports of a solution for our debt problems appear to be greatly exaggerated.
Meanwhile, blue chip earnings reports continue to roll and for most of the morning, they were outstanding. Then, about an hour ago, we had Caterpillar report $1.72 versus the expected $1.75. Sales we good, but input costs cut the bottom line. Caterpillar stock is down about 7 bucks pre-market and that has taken the steam out of a rally in the Dow futures. At over $100 per share, Caterpillar’s performance has a big impact on the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrials Index.
Outside of the big Cat, things are looking good. Microsoft, Sandisk, Advanced Micro, General Electric, Verizon, McDonalds and Honeywell all achieved higher operating earnings last quarter than consensus estimates.
Overseas markets are higher. Greece is up over 6 percent. We’re looking for modestly higher prices overall when the market opens.
At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are up by about 3½ points, the Dow futures, due mainly to the Caterpillar miss, are now down 14 points, and the NASDAQ futures are about 6 points above fair value.
Corporate earnings reports continue to roll in, and are a bit more of a mixed picture than the blowout numbers we saw yesterday. However, traders will focus today on a meeting of euro-zone leaders who will hopefully agree on a plan to at least wallpaper-over the Greek sovereign debt crisis. France and Germany have reportedly agreed to a plan of sorts.
But back to the corporate numbers for a minute, Morgan Stanley reported a loss that was only about half as big as expected. AT&T earned 60 cents versus the expected 59 cents, and Pepsico’s earnings came in as expected. However, Pepsi’s guidance was pretty downbeat, Whirlpool, Travelers and Ericsson all missed their respective bogeys. Microsoft will report just after 4 o’clock this afternoon.
Yesterday’s downbeat Housing Report took the wind out of the sails of an early rally. Today’s big data point will come at 10 o’clock with the Philadelphia Fed Survey, the Leading Indicators Report, and a speech by Ben Bernanke. Of course, at 8:30, the weekly Jobless Claims Number will get some attention. Expect about 415,000 new claims.
Stock futures were in a significant hole until about an hour ago. For the past hour, they’ve been pretty much wait-and-see mode as we await word out of the euro-zone meeting and hopefully, some agreement from the Bickersons in Washington D.C. However, the futures took another spike upward just about a minute ago.
At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are up 5, the Dow futures are up 45, although the NASDAQ futures are about 3 points above fair value.
In golf, they call it sandbagging. In corporate finance, they call it quarterly earnings reports that ALWAYS seem to come in with better scores than the posted handicap would have you believe. This morning, a flood of sandbaggers have us looking at higher stock prices again, following yesterday’s huge rally.
Nobody sandbags their earnings growth as consistently as Apple. Then again, nobody seems to use the innovation driver as effectively. Last night, Apple reported earnings of $7.79. That made the $5.80 estimate look a little bit silly. Apple sold over 20 million new iphones last quarter, which was more than 3 million more than expected.
This morning, United Technologies, AMR, the parent of American Airlines, Blackrock, Abbott Labs and CSX all beat estimates. Altria matched the estimated 53 cents per share.
Mainland China was a little lower overnight, but almost every other major market is higher. Stocks in Spain are more than 3 percent higher.
Watch the headlines out of Washington to see if the “Gang of Six” deficit reduction proposal continues to gain support. Reminiscent of the proposal of the Simpson-Bowles Commission from last year, the coming-out party for that proposal was part of the reason for the late surge in stock prices yesterday.
Our futures are well off their highs of the morning, but are still positive. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 4½ points, the Dow futures are up 27, and the NASDAQ futures, given the big shot in the arm from Apple, are about 14 points above fair value.
It was another stinker of a day for stock prices yesterday, although we rallied off the bottom late in the day. This morning, all is forgotten as we’ll likely get back most of what we lost yesterday right off the get-go.
Not that things are going any better with the debt standoff in Washington, mind you. It’s just that traders seem to have changed focus this morning. Earnings reports are flowing and the reports are mainly positive. Struggling Bank of America reported a 90 cent per share loss, but if you ignore mortgage losses (as if that wasn’t a part of a banks regular business) Bank of America earned 33 cents, which was 4 cents better than expected.
Coca Cola beat the $1.16 cent estimate by a penny and Johnson & Johnson reported operating earnings of $1.28, which was a four cent beat.
Housing starts for last month will be reported at 8:30. They’ve been pretty flat around the 600,000 annualized level since December of 2008, and are expected in at 575,000, which would be better than the prior report of 560,000.
Asian markets were mixed overnight, but Europe is mostly higher. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by almost 7 points, the Dow futures are up 69, and the NASDAQ futures are about 17½ points above fair value.
Worry, worry, worry. We have plenty of worry to go around this morning, and it’s not likely to be helping your portfolio this morning unless you’re short stocks or long gold.
Gold is up another 12 dollars, now north of $1,600 an ounce as traders fret about the big standoff in Washington D.C. over our debt limit and worry in Europe over the fate of Greek, Italian and ultimately Spanish debt.
There will be a big meeting on Thursday as Eurozone leaders attempt to deal with the Greek debt problem by adding more debt. When our representatives in Washington get around to dealing with the debt limit, which we’ll bump into again in about 2 weeks, is anybody’s guess.
We don’t have to guess about Halliburton’s earnings anymore. Operating earnings of 80 cents beat estimates by 7 cents. Entergy raised earnings guidance for the second quarter. Hasbro is out with the clunker of the morning, earning 33 cents versus the expected 39 cents.
The National Association of Home Builders releases a report on the housing industry at 10 o’clock. But that’s about it on the economic calendar today.
Our futures were quite the mess earlier this morning. They have gained back a little ground over the past half-hour or so, but still have a long way to go. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are lower by about 6 points, the Dow futures are down about 45, and the NASDAQ futures are about 13½ points below fair value.
There’s a little bit of everything going on today, even outside of the latest round of finger pointing and grand-standing in Washington D.C. Let’s start with earnings.
Last night, Google absolutely blasted by the estimate of $7.84 per share, earning $8.74. It’s a 36 percent profit increase from a year ago and Google shares are looking to open about 13 percent higher this morning. Citigroup just reported $1.09 versus the 96 cent estimate on better than expected revenue.
On the M&A front, Icahn Enterprises is looking to either acquire Clorox, or at least attract other bidders to drive up the price. The current bid from Icahn is $76.50 per share, which is about a 12% premium to yesterday’s closing price for Clorox shares.
We’ll wrap up the week with a full menu of economic reports, starting with the 8:30 report on inflation. The Consumer Price Index for June is expected to have dropped by two-tenths of a percent, reflecting energy prices that (back then) were falling. The core rate, excluding food and energy, is expected to have risen two-tenths of a percent. Also at 8:30, we’ll get the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which is expected to bounce back to a reading of 8 from May’s rather ugly minus 7.8.
Industrial Production and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index also come before 10 o’clock, and then, of course, there’s another press lecture from President Obama at 11.
So, we’ll have a lot of moving parts this morning, but so far, the parts that are moving are moving higher. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are up about 7 points, the Dow futures are up about 52, and the NASDAQ futures, reflecting the Google earnings news, are more almost 23 points above fair value.
You can say a lot of things about our elected leaders in Washington, but you have to hand it to them, they can play a game of “chicken” like nobody’s business. You just kind of wish it WAS somebody else’s business to resolve the country’s deficit problems – perhaps someone who wasn’t running for re-election.
Anyway, after the reportedly abrupt ending to yesterday’s meeting, where at least one of the sides admitted that they were “bluffing,” Moody’s announced that they were putting our sovereign debt up for review for possible downgrade from its “Triple-A” rating. And say what you will about the integrity of the big ratings companies, Moody’s isn’t bluffing, and their warning knocked Asian stocks lower in the early going overnight.
Notwithstanding the fiscal elephant in the room, earnings reports are heating up, and this morning, J.P. Morgan Chase reported $1.27 in earnings for the quarter gone by. That beat estimates by about a nickel. Google reports after 4 o’clock today.
ConocoPhillips announced that they will split into two companies. Conoco stock is indicated up 7 percent. Williams Companies have one-upped Energy Transfer’s bid for Southern Union, offering 44 dollars per share in cash.
Outside of China, there aren’t a lot of foreign markets trading higher this morning. But shrugging off all else, our futures have turned just a little bit higher on this morning’s earning news. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are up more than 3 points, the Dow futures are up about 16 points, and the NASDAQ futures are almost 8 points above fair value.
Twenty-four hours ago, overseas markets were awash in red numbers. But for as much red as we saw yesterday, we’re looking at a sea of green this morning. Overnight, the Chinese Government released a set of economic reports. They suggest that while this year’s Chinese Central Bank’s economic tightening has slowed down rampant growth in the economy, the Chinese economy still packs plenty of punch. Chinese GDP rose 9½ percent last quarter, with industrial production up over 15 percent and retail sales up almost 18 percent. All of those figures were a little stronger than expected.
The results of the “stress test” on European Banks will be officially released on Friday. However, there’s a report out this morning that all 13 German banks have passed.
The big doings in Washington this morning will be some Congressional testimony from Ben Bernanke. That starts at 10 o’clock. Yesterday, some Fed minutes were published and contained evidence that some form of additional “quantitative easing” is under consideration. Be sure that we’ll hear more about that today.
Wolverine World Wide beat the earnings estimate by 2 cents yesterday.
Our futures are nearing their highs of the morning, and are indicating a fairly strong open for stock prices. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are up almost 8 points, the Dow futures are up about 77 points, and the NASDAQ futures are about 18 points above fair value.
A couple of weeks ago, the debt crisis du jour was in Greece, a relatively tiny economy on the worldwide stage. Now, a week after the Greek leak was plugged, Italian debt is the focus, and now we’re talking money. Italy is the third largest debtor, after the U.S. and Japan, and this morning, reports have the European Central Bank buying Italian and Spanish debt in order to shore up the system. That bit of economic wallpaper should stem the bleeding for a while. The good news is that your European vacation may be getting cheaper as the euro traded below $1.39 this morning. The potential bad news – well, let’s not go there.
Of course, the granddaddy of them all, the U.S. debt market could be headed for crisis in less than three weeks if the show-boaters in Washington D.C. don’t get their act together.
While the world sorts out who will pay or not may whom, it’s time to look at who’s actually making money in the world. Last night, Alcoa kicked off the second quarter earnings reporting season, checking in with 32 cents in operating earnings. That missed the consensus estimate by 2 cents, and although the outlook wasn’t bad, Alcoa should open just a bit lower this morning.
Overseas markets are all lower. The dollar index is higher by another half percent. Our futures were quite the mess earlier this morning, but have rebounded quite a bit over the past hour.
Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are down about 3½ points although the Dow futures are now down only 2 points, and the NASDAQ futures are just about a point below fair value.
Take the gloom over last Friday’s Jobs Report, add a dash of worry about a pending Italian debt crisis and combine with the gigantic game of political chicken that’s going on over the debt ceiling in Washington and you have a recipe for falling stock prices. And so far this morning, that’s what’s on the menu.
Hopefully, we’ll shift focus a bit this week as second quarter corporate earnings reports start to roll out. That starts with Alcoa’s announcement which is scheduled for about 10 minutes past 4 this afternoon. Expect earnings of 34 cents per share from Alcoa.
Last quarter we saw an increasing percentage of companies that did not beat the consensus estimate, and although there were a lot of earnings warnings over the past couple of weeks, we should know by the end of next week whether corporate earnings will be all they’re cracked up to be this quarter.
The Treasury will come to market selling T-bills today for the first time since the end of QE 2. We’ll see how that goes.
Things went higher in Mainland China overnight, but that’s about the only green on the board. The rest of Asia traded lower. European markets are down anywhere between one-and-a-half and three percent.
The U.S. Dollar index is higher by about one-half of a percent this morning. And, as usual, that’s not helping the stock futures, which could apparently use any available help. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are down about 16 points, the Dow futures are down 104, and the NASDAQ futures are about 23 points below fair value.
Stock prices caught fire again yesterday after surprisingly strong employment news from the ADP monthly survey. Although the ADP survey has a somewhat spotty record in aligning with the Government’s official Job’s Report, it’s been a better predictor recently, and it’s sparking optimism about the official June jobs data that will come our way in about ten minutes.
Expect that 105,000 new non-farm jobs were created in June. More importantly, at least to those who believe in economic growth as opposed to government make work, it’s expected that 125,000 private sector jobs were created in June, which implies a slight shrinkage in Government jobs. Overall, the Job Report has shown fairly steady improvement since August of 2009, but the May number was a stinker. So, we’ll find out at 8:30 whether the May number was a blip or the beginning of a trend. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 9 percent, from 9.1 percent.
Interestingly, President Obama has scheduled a special public appearance to talk about the Jobs report later this morning. Call me cynical, but politicians don’t usually schedule special statements to talk about BAD news.
The Monster Job Recruiting Index for June was announced earlier, and rose 3 points of 146.
Asian markets were, on the main a bit higher. Europe is more off a mixed picture, but their markets, like ours will get direction from the June Jobs Report at 8:30. In the meantime, our futures are looking forward to the Jobs news with some optimism.
Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 3 points, the Dow futures are up 45, and the NASDAQ futures are about 10 points above fair value.
Big doings in Washington today, as the President and Congressional leaders will again get together for another round in the game of Russian Roulette they’ve been playing with the country’s debt limit. However, the difference today is a report that President Obama is open to changing the promises otherwise known as Social Security and Medicare. That, after all, is where the money is, or better put, that’s where people were TOLD that the money was, but isn’t. Suffice it to say that the debt limit talks finally appear to be getting serious, and will hopefully be resolved sooner than later, which should put a lot of traders’ worries to rest.
The Bank of England held short term interest rates steady at a half of one percent this morning. As expected, the European Central Bank raised rates a quarter percent to one and a half percent.
June Sales Reports are flowing from a variety of retailers this morning, and generally they’re pretty positive. The Limited, which was expected to see about a 4 percent same store sales increase, had an almost 13 percent rise. Costco was up 14 percent versus the 12.7 percent estimate and teen retailer Hot Topic had a fractional increase, instead of the expected 2½ percent decrease.
Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 are expected to hold pretty steady at the 420,000 level. However, the ADP Monthly Employment Report, released just 8 minutes ago, was much better than expected.
Asian markets were mixed overnight, but Europe is mostly higher and we are currently headed in that direction, and much more so after the ADP report.
Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 11 points, the Dow futures are up 72, and the NASDAQ futures are about 16 points above fair value.
China’s Central Bank did it again overnight, raising short term interest rates by a quarter of a percent. That sets the lending rate at 6.26% and the deposit rate at 3¼ percent. Remember when your bank savings and money market fund would get you 3¼ percent? In any event, the hope is that recent slowing depicted in Chinese economic reports will enable their Central Bank to slow or stop their tightening cycle soon.
Speaking of slowing, there’s some potentially bad news out of the Challenger Gray and Christmas Job Cut Report this morning. Forty-one thousand new layoffs were announced in June. That’s the second monthly increase in a row, after a string of monthly decreases in job losses.
Don’t look now, but mortgage rates may be on their way back up, now that the Fed’s “Quantitative Easing” is over. That 30 year rate was up almost a quarter point last week to 4.6 percent. Although applications for purchase mortgages were up almost 5 percent last week, refinancings were off more than 9 percent, reflecting the bump-up in rates.
The ISM report on the services sector of the economy is due at 10 this morning. Expect a reading of 54, versus last month’s 54.6.
Put it all together with some new worries about Portuguese debt, and we should have a slightly lower open at 9:30.
Our stock futures look pretty ugly on their >
The only economic report on the docket is the 10 o’clock release of May Factory Orders. Expect that we’ll get back most of April’s 1.2 percent decrease. Factory orders have risen at a fairly steady rate over the past year after turning positive in late 2009.
The big economic number this short week is likely to be Friday’s Employment Report, when we’ll find out if the encouraging production data we’ve gotten over the past couple of weeks are actually heating up the still-chilly job market.
The bidding for Southern Union got hotter this morning, as Energy Transfer Equity raised its offer to almost 9 billion dollars, which betters the offer from Williams Companies. Somehow, you get the feeling we’re only in about the sixth inning of this one.
Overseas markets are a mixed bag, but there’s really not a lot of movement in any direction.
We’ll start the day riding a five day winning streak, and although the stock futures were looking higher earlier this morning, the dollar has turned higher, and if the market opened right now, it would open a little lower. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are down 2 points and the Dow futures are down 6, although the NASDAQ futures are just about even with fair value.
Stock prices continued their rally yesterday. The S&P 500 is more than 4 percent higher this week. Before we pick a direction today, traders will watch the ISM Index at 10 o’clock, looking for confirmation of yesterday’s blowout number of 61.1 on the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index. The expected ISM number is 52, which would be worse than the May number of 53½. However, after yesterday’s 61.1 out of Chicago, hope is that we could get more good news at 10 o’clock.
June car sales reports will be rolling out all day. Ford and GM are expected to post double digit increases in car sales. Toyota and Honda are expected to report year-over-year declines. Overall domestic car sales are expected to have run at 9.6 million units. That would be a half-million units better than in May.
Overnight, China reported a PMI number of 50.9. That indicates an economy that is only barely expanding and may indicate that China’s cycle of money tightening may, number one, be working, and number two, may be nearing an end.
Darden Restaurants met earnings expectations this morning and Borders has apparently found a buyer.
There’s not a lot of movement in overseas markets and our futures have slipped back toward even this morning as we await the ISM number at 10.
At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are essentially flat, Dow futures are up 20 and the NASDAQ futures are about 2 points above fair value.
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