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WJR May 2016 Reports


 
May 31, 2016

It’s the last trading day of what is likely to become the fourth consecutive month of gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the third for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.

But before we can put this month in the books, we have a gamut of economic data to run. At 8:30, April Personal Income is expected to have risen by four-tenths of a percent, with personal spending rising seven-tenths.

At 9 o’clock, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index likely also rose by seven-tenths of a percent. At 9:45, look for the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index to rise to 50.7 and then at 10 o’clock, the University of Michigan’s final verdict on May Consumer Confidence could rise all the way to a reading of 97.
 
Medical equipment provider Medtronic beat the $1.26 earnings estimate by a penny per share this morning. You probably haven’t heard of a tiny firm called Celator Pharmaceuticals. Its shares are about70 percent higher pre-market on a buyout offer from Jazz Pharmaceuticals.

Chinese stocks rose 3 percent. Japan was one percent higher, and that’s the fifth straight day of gains over there. Volkswagen shares are higher in Europe on a good earnings report. However, most European markets are a little lower. Our futures are holding onto modest gains.

At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by about 3 points, the Dow futures are up 34 and the NASDAQ futures are almost 5 points above fair value. 

May 27, 2016

It will no doubt low-volume day of trading, especially after the noon hour as traders and the country in general stretch the three-day Holiday weekend to closer to three and a half. The U.S. Bond market will actually close at 2 o’clock.

Retailers’ earnings reports are pretty much wrapped up at this point, and it’s pretty clear that although traditional department stores >

Microsoft and Facebook are getting together to lay a 4,000 mile long undersea cable between Virginia and Spain. More and more private companies are investing in undersea cable data transmission capability rather than paying a telecommunications firm for the service.

The Government’s second guess at first quarter Gross Domestic Product at 8:30 is expected to rise to nine-tenths of a percent.

Chinese stocks were pretty much unchanged overnight, but the rest of Asia was higher. European markets are mostly higher, but not by much.

Our futures are on the rise again. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by about 4½ points, the Dow futures are up 34 and the NASDAQ futures are now 13 points above fair value. 

May 26, 2016

Hope that you enjoyed those oil prices in the 20’s a few months back. This morning, futures on a barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude are now trading north of 50 dollars per barrel at $50.15. That’s just in time for summer driving season, of course.

Also trading a little higher this morning are shares of Costco. Last quarter’s earnings beat estimates, and while overall revenue and same store sales came up short of estimates, lower gasoline prices and a stronger dollar take the blame. Absent that, we would have seen a 3 percent increase. Costco shares are looking to open one to two percent higher. 

The ever-shrinking retailer also known as Sears reported a loss of $1.86 for last quarter, which was far less than the $3.20 loss expected. Sears also said that it may look into making its Kenmore, Die Hard and Craftsman available outside of Sears stores. That could come through an alliance or perhaps an outright sale.

At 8:30, expect to hear about a three-tenths of a percent rise in April Durable Goods and 275,000 new claims for Unemployment benefits.

Overseas markets are mixed, without much movement in either direction.

Our futures are on the rise again. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by nearly 4 points, the Dow futures are up 35 and the NASDAQ futures are now 8½ points above fair value.

May 25, 2016

Shares of Computer Sciences and HP Enterprises are in rally mode this morning on word of a merger between Computer Sciences and an HPE spinoff.

The other hot stock of the morning appears to be Sarepta Therapeutics. The shares are almost 20 percent higher on word that the FDA has delayed a decision regarding the company’s work on a new drug to combat muscular dystrophy.

A disappointing report from Tiffany has the shares off by about four percent pre-market. First quarter earnings of 69 cents were a penny per share better than expected, but sales were soft and Tiffany’s second quarter outlook lacked any significant sparkle.  Retailer Express is also lower on an ugly outlook.

The weekly number from the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that applications for mortgages to fund home purchases rose 5 percent last week which is a little more good news for home builders.

Stock markets around the world followed us higher overnight.   European stocks are higher by about a percent and a half.

Our futures are almost exactly as positive as they were 24 hours ago. That doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s another 200 point Dow rally on the way, but we’ll certainly start the day nicely higher. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by 10 points, the Dow futures are up 73 and the NASDAQ futures are now almost 24 points above fair value. 

May 24, 2016

Stock prices started slowly and rocketed into mediocrity yesterday, but it looks like this morning will start to the plus side.

Helping that “plus side” is luxury home builder Toll Brothers. And when they say “luxury” they’re talking about an average home price of about $850,000. Earnings of 51 cents per share came in a nickel better than expected, and Toll Brothers shares are indicated about 2 percent higher pre-market.

At 10 o'clock we’ll get the national April New Home sales Report, which is expected to tick higher to an annualized rate of 523,000 homes.

Best Buy shares were about three percent higher this morning after announcing earnings of 44 cents per share versus the 35 cent estimate. Unfortunately, they then start giving guidance for the current quarter which wasn’t so hot, now expected to be closer to 40 cents as opposed to the expected 50 cents. Best Buy shares are now looking to open about 5 percent lower than yesterday’s close.

Deere and Microsoft were granted broker upgrades this morning. Most Asian markets were lower overnight, but outside of Greece, European markets are higher.

Our futures have been on a slow rise most of the morning. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by 10 points, the Dow futures are up 76 points and the NASDAQ futures are now 21 points above fair value. 

May 23, 2016

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ indexes managed to rise a bit last week, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now riding a four-week losing streak.

We have a very quiet day on the way for earnings and economic reports, but as is wont to happen on Monday, there is some merger news to consider.

A couple of weeks ago, German giant Bayer leaked word that they might be interested in making a bid for Monsanto. This morning, the all-cash bid is in at 122 dollars per share. That’s a 37 percent premium to Monsanto’s share price of a couple of weeks ago. Monsanto shares are about 10 percent pre-market, at only $110, as there is significant concern that the proposed merger would pass regulatory review.

Gannett’s once-raised bid for Tribune Publishing was again rejected by the Tribune board as inadequate at 15 dollars per share, although they did sell a chunk of shares to a private equity firm at that price and expressed openness to negotiating a higher price. 

Oil prices are about one percent lower this morning.

Overseas equity markets are mixed, but our futures have just turned slightly positive after spending most of the morning in the red.   At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by less than a point, the Dow future up 3 points and the NASDAQ futures are now about 5 points above fair value. 

May 20, 2016

Unless we have a rally that closes trading at least as strongly as the futures suggest we’re going to start trading, stock prices will be lower for the fourth week in a row. However, considering the hawkish bluster that came out of various Federal Reserve demigods this week, perhaps we should be thankful for what we have.

What Applied Materials has pre-market this morning is a stock price that’s about 8 percent higher on a great earnings report and improved earnings guidance.

Campbell Soup beat the 64 cent earnings estimate by a penny per share and also raised guidance, even though sales came in a little short, and that has the stock lower by 2 percent.

Deere shares are a little lower in spite of beating estimates, Foot Locker shares are off about 3 percent with overall sales and same store sales that disappointed. And GAP shares are more than 3 percent lower on word that they will close 75 Old Navy and Banana Republic stores outside of the U.S. Ross store is the retail mess of the morning, with share lower by more than 6 percent.

At 10 o’clock Existing Homes Sales round out the economic reports for the week. 

Overseas markets shrugged off our slump from yesterday and are generally higher. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by 7 points, the Dow futures are up about 58 and the NASDAQ futures are about 19 points above fair value. 

May 19, 2016

The lousy earnings reports from many department stores led to speculation that the American consumer may be pulling back on spending. Amazon’s results threw some sold water on the theory and this morning, Walmart gave that notion an absolute ice bath. Earnings of 98 cents per share were 10 cents better than expected and same store sales were up one percent. Walmart was expected to earn 95 cents per share in the current quarter, but this morning said that earnings should be at least that much and perhaps as much as $1.08. Walmart shares are higher by about 7½ percent pre-market, which is worth about 31 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Also out with better than expected results are Cisco Systems and Perry Ellis.

Weekly Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Index and two Fed-head speeches are on the way today.

Yesterday’s release of the latest Federal Reserve Open Market committee minutes revived the possibility of a hike in short term interest rates as early as next month. That killed yesterday’s rally and in spite of the Walmart news, the interest rate hangover lingers this morning.

Most overseas markets are lower. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 6 points, the Dow futures are down about 35 and the NASDAQ futures are about 11 points below fair value. 

May 18, 2016

Yesterday’s four tenths of a percent increase in the Consumer Price Index sent some shivers through stock prices, fueling talk of a sooner-than-later hike in interest rates. We’ll get a lot more color on that canvas this afternoon at 2 o’clock with the release of the latest Open Market Committee minutes from the Federal Reserve.

A few more retailers reported earnings this morning. Lowe’s followed up yesterday’s Home Depot report with a pretty good report of their own. 98 cents of operating profit came in 13 cents ahead of the average estimate on a 7.3 percent increase in same store sales. Lowe’s shares are about 1½ percent higher pre-market.

On the famous other hand, Target reported $1.29 of profit, which beat the lowered expectation of $1.19. However, sales came up short and same store sales were only up 1.2 percent. The bigger issue is some pretty lame forward guidance, with next quarter’s earnings projected at only $1.10, which is 26 cents less than analysts were looking for. That has the stock more than 6 percent lower pre-market.

JP Morgan is raising its dividend to 48 cents from 44 cents. Most major markets overseas are a little lower.

Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 3½ points, the Dow futures are down about 32 and the NASDAQ futures are almost 7 points below fair value. 

May 17, 2016

A big surge in stock prices lost some steam late in the trading session yesterday, and we’re seeing a little more weakness this morning, even in the >

The giant home improvement retailer posted $1.44 in adjusted earnings last quarter. That was 8 cents better than expected on a 7.4 percent increase in same store sales. Home Depot raised full year earnings guidance to $6.27 per share, which is a nickel better than analysts were expecting. Home Depot shares, which were more than 1½ percent higher yesterday quickly rose another two percent on the news, but have since settled back and are now looking to open with a fractional loss.

At 8:30 the April Consumer Price Index is expected to have risen three-tenths of a percent, and the April Housing starts are expected to have gone up 3.7 percent.

Oil prices have settled down a bit after a sharp rise yesterday. That came after a Goldman Sachs analysis that concluded that oil demand is now starting to overtake the supply. Oh good -- just in time for summer driving season.

European markets are, on average, pretty flat. Our futures are about as flat as can be as well. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by a point, the Dow futures are down about 6 and the NASDAQ futures are about even with fair value. 

May 16, 2016

Welcome to another Merger Monday. This time around it’s Pfizer making a bid for Anacor Pharmaceuticals in a 5.2 billion dollar cash deal. The offer is for $99.25 per share. Anacor is indicated more than 50 percent higher pre-market.

The proposed deal that would have Gannett buying Tribune Publishing may have gotten more interesting. After recently being rebuffed by the Tribune Board, Gannett has now raised its offer from $12.25 percent per share to 15 bucks.

The recently weakened shares of Apple are about 2 percent higher on word that Berkshire Hathaway has purchased almost 10 million shares of the Apple.

Industrial Production in China continues to expand at a slower rate. According to Chinese Government figures, April production rose about 6 percent year-over-year, that’s down from 6.8 percent in March. Chinese retail sales also slowed a bit, rising 10.1 percent.

It’s Whit Monday, and that has a bunch of overseas markets closed, including Germany and eight others in Europe.

Just about a year ago, U.S. stocks hit their all-time high. They won’t get back there today, but are likely to rise just a little bit at 9:30.

Adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by 4 points, the Dow futures are up 24 and the NASDAQ futures are about 14 points above fair value. 

May 13, 2016

Let’s get the good news out first, Nvidia shares are up almost 8 percent on a good earnings report. Shake Shack is almost 7 percent higher.

Unfortunately, the carnage in retail stocks continues unabated this morning, with almost everything in the space (outside of Amazon) on the discount rack. Last night, even high-end retailer Nordstrom reported another quarterly profit drop – that’s the fifth one in the past six quarters – and cut its full year profit outlook by 20 percent. Shares are about 17 percent lower pre-market.

This morning, JC Penney, a company that’s no stranger to disappointing results didn’t fail to follow suit. Although the quarterly loss of 32 cents per share was less than the 38 cent expected loss, sales fell short and JC Penney shares are about 10 percent lower pre-market.

In about 15 minutes, we may find out whether the retail slump is a consumer not-spending problem or just a consumer not-spending at the mall problem. At 8:30, the April Retail Sales Report is expected to tell us that all retail sales were nine-tenths of a percent higher last month, and up four-tenths of a percent if you strip out gasoline and automobile sales.

At 10, the University of Michigan’s first look at April consumer sentiment is expected to tick up to a level of 89.7 from March’s 89.0.

Overseas markets are mostly lower. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 7 points, the Dow futures are down 65 and the NASDAQ futures are about 17 points below fair value. 

May 12, 2016

We’re apparently back to a yo-yo stock market. Tuesday’s best performance in two months led to Wednesday’s worst day in three months as the Dow Jones Industrials fell more than 200 points.

Yesterday’s disappointing earnings reports from media and retail were followed this morning with downbeat news from retailer Kohl’s. Profit of 31 cents per share missed the estimate by 6 cents. Sales also missed and same store sales were off almost 4 percent. Kohl’s shares are off more than 6 percent pre-market. That follows a 6 percent loss yesterday. We’ll hear from Nordstrom and Party City after 4 o’clock today, but if you’re a retailer not maned Amazon, things aren’t looking so great.

The famous other hand belongs to Monsanto this morning. Word that Germany’s BASF may be mulling a bid for Monsanto has the shares up more than 17 percent.

Three Fed heads are out on the speaking circuit today, starting at 11 o’clock, as if things weren’t confused enough.

New Jobless claims at 8:30 are expected to hit 267,000. Oil is higher by a little more than one percent.

Asian markets were little changed overnight, but Europe is higher on the order of about one percent. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by 11 points, the Dow futures are up 87 and the NASDAQ futures are about 21 points above fair value. 

May 11, 2016

Stock prices had their best day in a couple of months yesterday. Although it looks like we’ll give some of those gains back in the early going, the futures appear to be staging a bit of a comeback from earlier levels.

Last night, Disney reported earnings that fell short of the average estimate, and that’s the first time that’s happened in five years. Operating earnings of $1.36 per share fell 4 cents short, and concern about the future of ESPN revenue continues to dog the stock. Disney shares are looking to open about 5 percent lower this morning.

That’s bad – but this is worse; shares of office supply house Staples are indicated to open about 16 percent lower and Office Depot shares are off over 30 percent as   a Washington D.C. judge put the final kibosh on the merger of the two. The Government sued to block the merger, claiming it would create some sort of monopoly on office supplies. Perhaps they’ve not yet heard of Amazon, or the internet, or any of that kind of competition. 

Toyota shares are lower as profits are being hurt by a stronger yen. Macy’s shares are off 8 percent on an earnings beat, a revenue miss and significantly lowered guidance. Electronic Arts shares looking about 7 percent higher on a good earnings report.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, but Europe is generally 1 to 2 percent lower. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 5 points, the Dow futures are down 45 and the NASDAQ futures are almost 11 points below fair value. 

May 10, 2016

This morning’s survey results from the National Federation of Small Businesses surprised to the upside with a reading of 93.6. So, in spite of expressing frustration with regulation and taxes, small business owners have apparently caught a fresh dose of optimism about near term business conditions.

Dean Foods is apparently optimistic as well. 45 cents of earnings beat the 38 cent estimate and announced plans to acquire the manufacturing and retailing assets of ice cream maker Friendly’s.

It’s certainly been an interesting few years for Lumber Liquidators. Less than 2 ½ years ago, shares of Lumber Liquidators traded at more than 115 dollars per share.

This morning, shares are off about 14 percent from yesterday’s close, and are now at just over 11 dollars and 50 cents per share after reporting a loss of 35 cents per share, which was almost 50 percent more of a loss than expected.

Allergan shares are indicated 6 percent higher after announcing plans to buy back 4 to 5 billion dollars in stock.

Disney reports earnings after the close of trading today.

Stock futures were indicating a significant rally earlier this morning, with the Dow future higher by well over 100 points. But as oil futures lost some of their earlier gains, so did the stock index futures. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by almost 9 points, the Dow futures are up 79 and the NASDAQ futures, are almost 12 points above fair value. 

May 9, 2016

First quarter earnings reports are pretty much behind us for calendar year end companies. In summary, it’s fair to say that companies sandbagged earnings estimates pretty much at the same rate as usual. But even though earnings meets and beats far outnumbered the misses, corporate earnings were far from inspiring.

One significant report is out this morning, and that’s from Tyson Foods. $1.07 was about 12 percent ahead of the 95 cent estimate, and Tyson raised full-year earnings guidance by about 7 percent, and Tyson shares are about 4 percent higher. Lending Club shares tanking, and are indicated about 28 lower pre-market.

The only economic report on the calendar today is the Labor Market Conditions Index, which is expected to decline by 2 percent or so.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will give a speech in Minneapolis at 1 o’clock today.

Oil futures were about higher by 2 percent higher earlier as the fires in Canada continue to burn, but have since lost most of those gains.

Outside of Italy, European markets are nicely higher. Our futures are off their highs.  At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by almost 4 points, the Dow futures are up 26 and the NASDAQ futures, are about 13 points above fair value. 

May 6, 2016

It looks as though we may be on the way to our second consecutive week of declining stock prices in the U.S. We will get the Labor Department’s April Unemployment Report in about 15 minutes, but it’s hard to imagine enough of a surprise in that number to give stocks a turbo-boost.

Expect that about 203,000 new jobs were created in April, with the Unemployment Rate possibly dropping from 5 percent to 4.9 percent. The average hourly wage may have increased by about three-tenths of a percent last month.

Increasing in value by about 12 percent this morning are shares of Herbalife on word that they are in talks to settle and close a federal Trade Commission investigation. Activision Blizzard shares are almost 6 percent higher on a very good earnings report, and on the famous other hand, GoPro shares are hovering about 8 percent lower as revenue dropped 50 percent from a year ago, and word that their new drone won’t fly until late this year. It was expected to take off in June. And not to be outdone, Square shares are 15 percent lower due to rising expenses. Endo International shares are off almost 30 percent on a lousy outlook.

Most overseas markets are lower, with Chinese stocks down about 3 percent, on fears that local regulators are up to no good. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by almost 6 points, the Dow futures are down 41 and the NASDAQ futures, are about 12 points below fair value. 

May 5, 2016

Happy Cinco de Mayo!

This morning’s Challenger Report, which tells us about how many layoffs were announced last month, reported a spike up to 65,000 job cuts last month. That was up for about 48,000 in March. However, about 20,000 of those 65,000 layoffs came from the struggling energy industry.

Speaking of which, oil prices are higher by about 3 percent this morning, due to the huge Canadian wildfire, which is disrupting productions in the Canadian oil sands. That could have something to do with the rise in stock futures as well.

Fitbit looks good on your wrist, but not so much in your portfolio this morning. Last night, Fitbit beat on earnings and beat on sales and raised guidance. The problem is that they admitted that future growth is reliant on additional spending, and that has traders stepping quickly toward the sell button this morning, with Fitbit shares lower by more than 10 percent.

There are at least two television interviews, a speech and a panel discussion involving many Federal Reserve officials today.   Hopefully they just cancel the whole thing and go have a Margarita.

The Japanese stock market was closed overnight for Children’s Day (although my mother used to tell me that was EVERY day.) Anyway, other overseas markets are narrowly mixed, outside of Greece, which is almost 3 percent higher.

At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by almost 9 points, the Dow futures are up 64 and the NASDAQ futures, are almost 21 points above fair value. 

May 4, 2016

It’s often hard to pinpoint one specific thing that drives stock prices any particular day. So it’s not absolutely certain that the stock futures are responding to the reality of who the Presidential nominees will be this year. However, if that IS the market moving news of the morning, the choice we are now facing is casting some fear into the stock trading community.

Speaking of fear, Priceline issued weak earnings guidance for the current quarter, and that has Priceline stock lower by about 10 percent pre-market. That is spite of the fact that last quarter’s earnings of $10.54 per share beat estimates by almost a dollar.

GoPro shares are almost 5 percent lower pre-market. GoPro lost eight cents per share last quarter and is expecting a bigger loss this quarter. They will lay-off 7 percent of their workers to try to preserve cash.

The bright spot of the morning may be Time Warner. $1.49 of adjusted earnings came in 30 cents higher than a year ago. Time Warner shares are looking to open about 1½ percent higher. 

Expect that 193,000 new jobs were created in April. We’ll find out when the ADP Employment Report comes less than 5 minutes from now.

At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 11 points, the Dow futures are down 76 and the NASDAQ futures, are almost 26 points below fair value. 

May 3, 2016

If you enjoyed yesterday’s final score, well maybe you should just go back to bed this morning as yesterday’s gains could pretty much evaporate in the first inning today. A private survey regarding the Chinese Manufacturing sector indicated a 14thconsecutive month of contraction in April, as the reading of 49.4 was even worse than the 49.7 reported for March. 

Stateside, earnings reports continue to pour in. The big downside surprise came from AIG. 65 cents per share of profit missed the one dollar estimate badly. Also missing the mark this morning were ADM (the old Archer Daniels Midland) Sprint and Swiss Bank UBS.

Better the expected news came from Pfizer, where 67 cents beat the 55 cent estimate handily. Pfizer shares are indicated about 2½ percent higher. Also out with happy news was Cummins Engine, Emerson Electric and Halliburton.

April car sales numbers will be rolling in all day. Expect an annualized sale rate of as much as 17.3 million units.

Aeropostale is reportedly getting ready to head to bankruptcy court and will close 100 of their 800 stores. Biogen will spin off its hemophilia business.

Australia’s Central Bank surprised with an interest rate cut overnight, but the euro is surging against the dollar and that’s not helping stocks in Europe (or here for that matter.) Europe is off 1 to 2½ percent. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 15 points, the Dow futures are down 122 and the NASDAQ futures, are about 31 points below fair value. 

May 2, 2016

It was once going to be a 35 billion dollar deal, merging two oil services giants. Today, it’s just a memory. Well, that and a 3½ billion dollars breakup fee that Halliburton will have to pay to Baker Hughes. Bowing to anti-trust worries from many countries, and of course, a lawsuit filed by the Department of Justice, Halliburton and Baker Hughes will now go their separate ways. Baker Hughes shares are about one percent lower on the news, even though they’ll have all that cash to help pay down debt. Halliburton shares are slightly higher pre-market.

At 10 o’clock, we’ll get the ISM Manufacturing Report. It’s expected to slump a bit, but still reflect slight growth in the manufacturing segment of the economy. Expect a reading of 51.5.

Now that the Federal Reserve meeting is done, various Fed Governors are out on the speaking circuit again, Dennis Lockhart and John Williams talk it up today.

A good number of overseas markets are closed to May Day observances, but the Asian markets that did trade traded lower overnight. Japanese stock sank more than 3 percent. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by 6½ points, the Dow futures are up 47 and the NASDAQ futures, are about 9 points above fair value. 

WJR June 2016 Reports
WJR April 2016 Reports

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