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WJR May 2017 Reports


 

May 31, 2017

The conventional wisdom about the stock market says “sell in May and go away.” Well, here we are at the last trading day on May, and it looks as though that wisdom is conventional, but not particularly smart, as the S&P 500 is more than one percent higher since April 30th. Granted, over the past 25 years, June has been the second-to-worst month for stock prices. However, for summer as a whole over the past 25 years, stock prices average a decline of only one-tenth of one percent in the June through September period.

Doing somewhat worse than break-even this morning are shares of high-end retailer Michael Kors. Kors made 73 cents per share, 3 cents better than expected if you adjust for the stuff you wish hadn’t happened. Under full GAAP accounting, Kors lost 17 cents per share, compared with the quarterly profit of 98 cents a year ago. Forward guidance was weak and Michael Kors shares are off about 5 percent pre-market.

At 2 this afternoon, the Federal Reserve breaks out the Beige Book, which is its survey of regional economic conditions.

There could be good news coming to a gas pump near you, as West Texas Intermediate oil is lower by more than 2 percent this morning.

Asian markets were mixed. Europe has turned somewhat higher, but no European market is higher by more than one percent. 

Our futures have been slowly climbing north since midnight, and at this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by about 5 points, the Dow futures are up 41 and the NASDAQ futures are about 21 points above fair value.

May 30, 2017

The S&P 500 will enter today on a 7-session winning streak, but it’s a winning streak that will be challenged in the early going of this short week of trading.

It’s about time for stock traders to stop worrying about the same old stuff and to focus on the next upcoming crisis. Excuse me if you’ve heard this one before – but European stocks are in the red this morning on fears that Greece may not make its next big scheduled debt repayment. That comes due in July. Greek officials are downplaying that possibility. Also, fear that there may be an early Italian election in September has the computers hitting the “sell” button in Europe.

Autozone, O’Reilly Automotive and Buffalo Wild Wings all suffered broker downgrades this morning.

The April Personal Income and Spending data comes at 8:30, the March Case-Shiller Home Price Index comes at 9, and later this morning, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report is expected to cool a bit from the April level of 120.3.

Japanese stocks were flat overnight. European markets are off about one-half of one percent. Our futures are reflecting about the same amount of weakness we had at this hour on Friday. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by about 5 points, the Dow futures are down 36 and the NASDAQ futures are about 9 points below fair value.

May 26, 2017

Trading should be on the lighter side as some Wall Streeters try to stretch the upcoming 3 day weekend by a half-day or so. Of course, they’ll just leave the computers and the algorithms in charge. What could go wrong?

Anyway, for all that’s gone wrong for the department stores lately, retailing at wholesale prices seems to be just fine, thank you.

Last night, Costco reported $1.59 of profit, which was 35 better than a year ago and 29 cents better than expected. Comparable store sales were up 5 percent and Costco shares are up about one percent this morning. Big Lots shares are higher by 9 percent. $1.15 in profit beat the 99 cent estimate and compares to 79 cents a year ago.

At 8:30, the April Durable Goods Report might slip by one percent or so, but if you take the volatile transportation sales out of the calculation, expect a four-tenths of a percent increase. The Government’s second guess at 1stquarter GDP also comes at 8:30. Expect a one-tenth of a percent increase to a still-anemic eight tenths of a percent.

And, the University of Michigan’s final report on May Consumer Confidence at 10 o’clock should be pretty much unchanged at a still-healthy 97.7.

Asia was mixed, Europe is lower and we may well suffer some rally-interruptus in the early going. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by about 3 points, the Dow futures are down 28 points and the NASDAQ futures are about 4 points below fair value.

May 25, 2017

There have been a few exceptions. However, earnings and forecasts from brick and mortar retailers have been abysmal in the >

There were a lot of obituaries written for retailer Best Buy a couple of years ago. It was said that Best Buy had become a big showroom for folks who wanted to see a product before left the store they bought the same product online.

A revamped online strategy, better advertising and a better in-store experience are apparently paying off. Same store sales at Best Buy actually rose last quarter. Earnings of 60 cents per share were 50 percent better than expected and Best Buy shares are almost 15 percent higher in the pre-market. Sears most less than expected last quarter, and Sears shares are 13 percent higher, although a loss of more than $2.00 per share is not exactly what you would call a turnaround.

Speaking of struggling retailers, Abercrombie & Fitch shares are about 3 percent higher this morning. Sales last quarter were a bit better than expected, although losses widened, earnings missed and same store sales dropped. Not sure that this report makes the company any more attractive for prospective buyers, but it’s some temporary relief for shareholders who have seen the stock drop about 60 percent over the past 8 months.

No big news out of the Fed minutes was good news yesterday and this morning, the bull will apparently change on, at least in front of the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30.

At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by almost 5 points, the Dow futures are up 58 points while the NASDAQ futures are about 17 points above fair value.

May 24, 2017

A couple of disappointing earnings reports are in the spotlight this morning. Home improvement retailer Lowe’s did see same store sales rise 1.9 percent and per-share profit was $1.03 versus last year’s comparable quarter’s 87 cents. Problem is that Wall Street expected $1.06 in profit and a higher overall sales number than Lowe’s reported. Lowe’s shares are off about 5 percent pre-market, after diving 7 percent early on.

Tiffany shares are losing about 5 percent pre-market. The 74-cent profit was 4 cents better than expected, but revenue missed and same store sales actually declined.

A decline in interest rates gave rise to an 11 percent increase in refinanced mortgages last week. The average 30 year conventional is now down to 4.17 percent. Mortgages taken out to purchase a house fell again last week.

At 2 o’clock, the Fed will release the minutes from their last meeting and two more Fed Heads will give speeches after 6 tonight as we try to divine how much higher interest rates will go and how soon. 

Overseas markets are mixed, but very little changed. Our futures are very little changed, but are pointing a bit higher once again. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by about 3 points, the Dow futures are up 15 points while the NASDAQ futures are about 16 points above fair value.

May 23, 2017

Earnings reports are a bit of a mixed bag this morning compared with expectations, even though all are showing improved profits compared to a year ago.

Agilent’s 50 cents per share of operating earnings was a two-cent beat, but almost double last year’s 28 cents. They also raised the full year forecast and Agilent shares are almost 3 percent higher pre-market.

Take Two Interactive shares are unchanged. Their 89 cents per share nearly doubled last year’s comparable quarter’s 48 cent profit.

The miss of the morning appears to be AutoZone. $11.44 of earnings was better than the year ago profit of $10.77. Problem is that analysts had expected 12 bucks on the nose and Autozone shares are getting punched in the snout this morning, down almost 7 percent.

At 10 o’clock we’ll get the April New Home Sales Report. The March run rate of 622,000 was very strong. Expect that annualized rate to tail off a bit to just over 600,000 units.

Most of Asia was lower overnight. However, Europe is higher, in spite of last night’s terror attack in Great Britain.

Our futures are indicating no let-up in the rising prices we saw yesterday. At this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by almost 5 points, the Dow futures are up 49 and the NASDAQ futures are about 14 points above fair value.

May 22, 2017

Rumors were flying over the weekend about a management shake-up at Ford Motor, and the shake-up will start at the top floor of the Glass House. Jim Hackett, the former Steelcase CEO and former interim Athletic Director at the University of Michigan will take over from Mark Fields.  Ford stock is about 40 percent lower since Fields became CEO, and something had to give. Whether Hackett and a new team can turn that around is an interesting question. Maybe he’ll bring in Jim Harbaugh as head coach. Ford share, by the way, are 2 ½ percent higher in pre-market trade.

Two chemical giants are getting together. Shareholders of Swiss based Clariant will own 52 percent, shareholders of Texas-based Huntsman will own 48 percent of the combined 20-billion-dollar company.

If you’re an avid Federal Reserve watcher – well, first of all, you need a new hobby. But having said that, today is your Super Bowl Monday with no fewer than six speeches from five Fed Heads on the agenda.

 
Overseas markets are mixed. Our futures have been all over the place this morning, but at this point, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are higher by almost 3½ points, the Dow futures are up 34 and the NASDAQ futures are about 4½  points above fair value.

May 19, 2017

Maybe – just maybe – traders are starting to refocus on corporate news rather than Washington hysteria, as domestic stock futures indicate a continuation of yesterday’s rather mild bounce-back rally.

Leading the charge this morning are shares of Deere. A surprising $2.49 per share of quarterly earnings were well ahead of the $1.63 estimate. Full year guidance was raised and Deere shares are running about 7 percent higher pre-market.

Positive retail stories are getting fewer and farther between, but this morning GAP reported and earnings beat on strength in the Old Navy stores. Shares are gapping about 4 percent higher. Salesforce .com rounds out the good news of the morning as they raised guidance. 

The famous other hand is shared by Campbell Soup and Foot Locker. Campbell’s earnings of 59 cents came in a nickel short, and Foot Locker’s $1.36 was a 2 cent miss. Campbell Soup shares are off 4 percent, and Foot Locker is down almost 10 percent this morning.

Oil is higher by another one percent, after briefly breeching the 50 level earlier.

St. Louis Fed President Bullard and San Francisco Fed head Williams will offer speeches later today.

Overseas markets followed us higher overnight. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures higher by about 5 points, the Dow futures are up 32 and the NASDAQ futures are 17 points above fair value.

May 18, 2017

Turmoil in the White House was the proximate cause of turmoil in stock prices yesterday and while the downdraft in prices may continue today, it may just provide a pause that refreshes in a stock market that recently didn’t look like it could ever go lower.

Definitely going lower this morning are shares of Cisco Systems. Last night Cisco reported 60 cents per share of profit, that was two cents better than expected, but guidance for the remainder of the year was lousy, and Cisco Systems will cut about 1,100 jobs. Shares are off about 7½ percent pre-market.  Alibaba announced a 6-billion-dollar stock buyback. Nevertheless, Alibaba shares are sliding almost 2 percent premarket after missing on earnings, but beating on revenue. 

Walmart’s one dollar of profit was a four cent beat on improved internet sales, although overall sales were a bit lower than expected.

We’ve got Weekly Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Index and the Leading Economic Indicators coming by 10 this morning. The results of a whole bunch of Treasury bill and note auctions will be announced at 11 and will be of heightened interest now with the market interest rate on the 10 -year Bond dipping to nearly 2.2 percent during yesterday’s flight to safety.

Japanese stocks dropped about 1.3 percent overnight. European markets are between one and two percent lower. Our futures are pointing lower once again. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures lower by about 2 points, the Dow futures are down 42 (after being about 90 points lower earlier) and the NASDAQ futures are nearly 7 points below fair value.

May 17, 2017

If you are relatively new to the stock market, don’t expect the rest of your investing life to look like the past six months. If you’ve been around for a while, you know better. Volatility in stock prices has been virtually non-existent since the election, with the biggest misstep for stock prices resulting in less than a three percent loss. However, since World War II, the median decline in the S&P 500 is over 10 percent in any given year, even though stock prices have risen more than 10 percent per year.

Bottom line? Expect some periodic losses, and today may bring us a taste of that. Worries that President Trump’s current distractions will forestall the important stuff like tax reform and medical insurance reform have the futures is a bit of a tizzy this morning, even though they have recovered a chunk of last night’s losses.

Revenue was lower, same-store sales were lower, but Target shares are more than 7 percent higher this morning after reporting $1.21 per share of operating earnings, which was 20 cents better than expected. American Eagle Outfitters reported 16 cents of profit, which was a one cent miss.

Mortgage Applications fell more than 4 percent last month as the average rate on a conforming 30 year mortgage held steady at 4.23 percent.

Overseas markets are generally lower. Our futures are improved, but still indicating a significant downdraft at 9:30. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures lower by about 11½ points, the Dow futures are down 91 and the NASDAQ futures are nearly 23 points below fair value.

May 16, 2017

It’s another day and another record high for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 indexes, and our stock futures have been gaining ground again over the past few hours.

Gaining about two percent in the pre-market are shares of Home Depot. Positive retail earnings stories have been few and far between of late. This morning, Home Depot reported $1.67 of operating profit for last quarter. That was a nickel per share better than expected. Same store sales and total revenue were also better than expected.

Ford shares will be an interesting watch today. So far in the pre-market, Ford shares are about one half of one percent higher. A story in the Wall Street Journal says that Ford will be saying goodbye to 10 percent of its workforce. Most of the cuts will reportedly involve salaried workers. The cost-cutting comes amid signs that domestic auto sales may be peaking.

We’ll be peeking at the April Housing Report in just about 15 minutes. Expect an increase to an annualized run rate of just over one and a quarter million homes.

Overseas markets are mixed at this hour.

Our futures are holding in there at slightly higher levels. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures higher by about 1½ points, the Dow futures are up 29 and the NASDAQ futures are about 5½ points above fair value.

May 15, 2017

The Friday cyber attack on computers worldwide appears to be subsiding as we start the new trading week. So, if you haven’t been impacted, take it as yet another warning to diversify your passwords and make sure that you and those that work for you aren’t opening emailed files that you don’t recognize.

It’s Monday, the traditional day of the week for mergers – and we have a couple of Dutch companies getting acquired this morning. Moody’s is buying one for 3.3 billion dollars, and scientific instrument maker Thermo Electron is paying 5.2 billion dollars to buy Patheon. That amounts to 35 dollars per share. Domestically, Owens Corning will acquire Pittsburgh Corning in a deal worth a little more than a half-billion dollars.

Oil is more than 3 percent higher as Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to extend output restrictions to at least March of 2018.

The National Association of Home Builders will give us their May Housing Report this morning, which is expected to be unchanged from the April reading of 68. We’ll also get the May reading on the manufacturing sector in the New York region from the Federal Reserve. Expect improvement there from April’s 5.2 to a reading of about 7.

European markets are on the whole very little changed at this hour, but it looks like we’ll start the day with modestly rising stock prices at 9:30. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures higher by about 4 points, the Dow futures are up 38 and the NASDAQ futures are about 2 points above fair value.

May 12, 2017

Our stock futures have recovered much of the earlier losses. One of the reasons for the early heebie-jeebies was word that oil services firm Tidewater will enter into a pre-packaged bankruptcy filing. It’s no secret that these are not great times in the oil business. However, if a string of similar firms start restructuring their massive debts, the shock waves will not be pretty in the banking sector among others.

Speaking not pretty sectors, if you own a bunch of department store stocks, things are going from very bad to downright ugly this morning, especially if one of those stocks is J.C. Penney. An adjusted profit of 6 cents per share was better than the expected 21 cent loss, but no one cares. Same store sales were down 3½ percent, the full GAAP loss was 58 cents per share versus a 22-cent loss a year ago, and J.C. Penney shares are lower by almost 7 percent or so this morning. That brings the 2017 loss in value at around 40 percent.

At 8:30 the Consumer Price Index for April is expected to register a two-tenths of a percent increase. We’ll see if it comes in hotter than expected, especially in view of yesterday’s very hot Producer Price numbers. We haven’t had to worry about inflation in a while, but that number bears watching.

Retail Sales at 8:30 ex-autos are expected to be up a half percent. A little later, the University of Michigan’s first look at May consumer sentiment is expected to improve to 97.3.

Once again, markets overseas are mixed but not moving much in either direction.

Adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 4 points, the Dow futures are down 26 points and the NASDAQ futures are about 5½ points below fair value.

May 11, 2017

If you’re in the fast-money crowd, there are a couple of lessons to be learned today.

In their first post-IPO earnings report, Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, reported a 2.2 billion dollar loss. Ouch. You’d expect losses in a company’s early years. However, 2.2 billion is more than chump change, and some are questioning whether Snap has a viable business model, capable of fighting off competition from Facebook and others. If you’ll remember, Snap came public at 17 dollars per share for the insiders. But for you and me and the hoi-poloi, the opening price was north of 24 bucks. This morning, shares are being snapped up at about 18 dollars – down 21 percent from yesterday.

Speaking of speculation, yesterday traders bid up shares of Straightpath Wireless to north of 220 dollars per share, on hope of a bidding was between AT&T and Verizon. This morning, AT&T has been shown the door and Verizon will buy Straightpath and its 5G spectrum for $184 per share. Straightpath shares are about 50 dollars lower on the news.

Retailer Kohl’s reported an earnings beat but sales fell short of estimates. Macy’s fell short on both earnings and sales. Macy’s shares are more than 5 percent lower pre-market.

At 8:30, expect to hear that Producer Prices last month rose two-tenths of a percent.

Markets overseas are mixed, but very little changed in either direction. Our futures took a step backward about a half hour ago. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower by almost 7 points, the Dow futures are down 46 points and the NASDAQ futures are almost 20 points below fair value.

May 10, 2017

Traders in New York will likely be a bit unsettled in the early going today, just as the politicos in Washington are a bit unsettled after the firing of FBI Director Comey yesterday. However, focus will likely turn to other news on the economy and corporate earnings, and there’s a little flurry of that this morning.

Wendy’s shares are about 4 percent higher after reporting 9 cents per share of profit which was a penny better than expected. Drug-maker Mylan looks to open 3 percent higher after also checking in a penny ahead of estimates.

Worries about the future of ESPN have Disney shares a couple percent lower, even though $1.50 of profit was 9 cents better than expected. Shares of cosmetics maker Coty are 9 percent higher on a good earnings report.

The winner of the morning may be shares of Abercromie & Fitch. They’re up about 16 percent on word that they are looking to be acquired by another retailer. Newly minted shares of Snap will get their first test by fire tonight as Snap will report earnings after 4 o’clock.

Mortgage applications surprise with a 2.4% increase last week, with both new purchase and refinancing loans picking up steam.

Two Fed heads are out on the speaking circuit today, but in front of that, overseas markets are mixed, as are our futures. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are lower almost 1½ points, the Dow futures are down 42 points but the NASDAQ futures are about 3 points above fair value.

May 9, 2017

Given recent performance, you might think that stock price volatility is a thing of the past, with the VIX index at a 24-year low this morning. We know that volatility will reappear, but let’s just enjoy its absence in the interim.

So far this earnings season, about 78 percent of the S&P 500 have checked in with good news on profits, and 65% beat revenue estimates.  Earnings news, on the whole, doesn’t get a lot better than that.

The earnings news from Valeant Pharmaceuticals is pretty good this morning, even though a chunk of its $1.79 per share of profit came from a one-time tax benefit. Nevertheless, the $1.79 doubled the consensus estimate, and compares to $1.08 per share in losses from a year ago. Valeant shares are about 12 percent higher pre-market.

Allergan’s $3.35 was four cents better than expected. The miss of the morning may be Discovery Communications, with 41 cents compared to a 45 cent estimate.

At 10 o’clock the Labor Department’s report on Job Opportunities and Labor Turnover will be released.

As they head to the polls to elect a news President in South Korea, their market is about 2½ percent higher. The rest of Asia is mixed, but Europe has turned higher. Our futures floated into the green a little less than two hours ago. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are up almost 3 points, the Dow futures are up 27 points and the NASDAQ futures are about 7 points above fair value.

May 8, 2017

Last week’s rumored merger is in the bag this morning (pun intended.) Coach will pay $18.50 to buy Kate Spade. That’s about a 27 percent premium to Kate Spade’s price when the merger was first leaked to the press. The second rumored deal of last week is reportedly close, but not yet done, with the Sinclair Broadcast Group looking to buy Tribune Media. Sinclair’s recent offer would give Tribune shares about a 30 percent premium.

And speaking of telecommunication mergers, AT&T thought that they had a deal to acquire Straight Path Communications, but this morning, Straight Path shares are 24 percent higher on word of a superior bid for the company. No one is saying who the new suitor is, but some are saying that its name rhymes with “horizon.”

Two Federal Reserve officials will speak within the hour. Economic reports and first quarter earnings reports from the retailers and other companies with January fiscal year ends start later this week.

It’s been a rough month for Chinese stocks and they were lower again overnight, while the rest of Asia rallied. Europe is mixed, but mainly lower, even after the Euro-friendly results of yesterday’s French election.

Our futures have been hovering around the flatline most of the morning. Right now, adjusted for fair value, the S&P 500 futures are flat, the Dow futures are down 15 points and the NASDAQ futures are about 3 points above fair value.

May 5, 2017

Happy Cinco de Mayo everyone, but before we break out the margaritas we have one more trading day of the week to survive. 

At 8:30 this morning, the April Employment Report comes from the Labor Department. Expect that the Unemployment Rate might nudge higher from 4.5 percent to 4.6 percent. The average estimate for new jobs created in April is about 190,000. That would be a nice recovery from last month’s 98,000.

Insurer Cigna reported $2.77 per share in profit this morning, which was 32 cents better than expected. CBS beat the 95-cent estimate by 9 cents and Shake Shack’s ten cents per share beat the 8-cent estimate. However, same store sales at Shake Shack were off by more than two percent, guidance was weak and shares are about 2 percent lower pre-market.

There aren’t a lot of investors that can move a market by making a move in their portfolio. However, this morning Warren Buffett announced that he has sold about 30 percent of his IBM shares this year. Like it or not, that news has IBM shares lower by more than 5 dollars per share.

Four Federal Reserve officials will give speeches today before they head to the tequila bar. Absent a shocker from the Labor Department at 8:30, most stocks should head slightly higher at 9:30.

Adjusted for fair value, the Dow futures are down 28, but you can blame that on pre-market weakness in IBM. For the broader indexes, the S&P 500 futures are higher by about a point and the NASDAQ futures are about 4 points above fair value.

May 3, 2017

On the whole, the first quarter earnings reports have been a good news story, lending support to the significant stock market rally we’ve seen since October. Of course, the six months of November through April period have provided better market returns than the May through October period two-thirds of the time since 1990. Still, the better than expected reports give some hope that the rally may well continue into summer.

Last night, Apple cast some doubt on whether the rally in iphone sales will continue. It could be that iphone sales slowed because Apple-ites are waiting for a new and improved iphone, but slow they did. Apple earnings of $2.10 came in 8 cents ahead of estimates. Apple shares are lower by about a dollar and a half per share pre-market, but that’s almost two dollars higher than they were indicated a couple of hours ago.

Delphi will spin off its powertrain business. They also reported $1.59 in profit, 13 cents better than expected and Delphi shares are more than 5% higher.

Also with better than expected earnings this morning are Yum brands, Garmin, Southern Company and Time Warner. Shares of Akamai are about 15% lower on a weak outlook. And yesterday, one of the hot stocks of last year, Advanced Micro Devices lost 24% on a lowered outlook.

Facebook and Tesla report after 4 o’clock and the Fed will report on interest rates at 2 o’clock, although no change in rates is expected.

Absent a big surprise in the ADP employment report at 8:15, slightly lower stock prices are expected at 9:30. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are lower by about 4 points, and the Dow futures are down 31, and the NASDAQ futures are almost 15 points below fair value.

May 2, 2017

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee starts a two-day meeting today. By tomorrow afternoon, we’ll find out if they are still sticking to a “data-dependent” mode, which would presumably mean no hike in rates, given the weak GDP numbers, or if they take the cover of strong stock prices to accelerate their plan to “normalize” the historically low short-term rate of interest. 

This morning, there is a little flurry of earnings activity. Pfizer reported 67 cents of profit, 2 cents better than expected. However, sales fell a little short. Two big oil companies, BP and ConocoPhillips are both seeing their shares about one percent higher. BP reported seven cents – a penny ahead of estimates. ConocoPhillips lost 2 cents on an operating basis, which was 4 cents worse than expected.

April Auto sales Reports are due today and Apple reports their quarterly earnings and updates us on their overseas cash hoard after 4 o’clock today.

Chinese stocks were lower overnight, but most other markets overseas are in the green. As we head toward 9:30, it looks like stock prices will be on the slow rise once again today. Adjusted for fair value, the S&P futures are higher by about 2½ points, and the Dow futures are up 15, and the NASDAQ futures are almost 10 points above fair value.

 
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